Looking through monthly volatility, the only areas of notably rising prices were Southland (+3.2% over the past three months) and Otago (+1.2% over the past three months), Galt said.
Prices were drifting down in Wellington (-1.7% over the past three months) and Auckland (-1.1% over the past three months) and were broadly flat around the rest of the country, he said.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon noted that low mortgage rates were supporting demand, but that the ample supply of homes on the market, low population growth and falling rents meant that there was a lack of upward pressure on prices.
Last week, Westpac downgraded its house price forecast to a 4% rise over 2026.
“While we expect GDP growth to be noticeably above trend this year, we expect a much more muted than usual reaction in house prices, as significant stock is available for sale,” Gordon said.
“The pick-up in building consents also suggests a robust supply of new houses through 2026 and 2027. In addition, population growth is expected to remain subdued, albeit with a modest lift in net migration.”
ANZ is even more downbeat, forecasting price on the HPI will rise just 2% by the end of the year.
The REINZ HPI is the preferred metric for economists because it removes volatility from median pricing and sales data by adjusting for changes in the composition of the market.
It was developed in partnership with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and provides a more complete picture of the New Zealand housing market.
Focusing on topline median price movements, the REINZ noted some positive signs in the market.
National median prices held steady, rising slightly by 0.4% from January 2025 to $753,106, the REINZ said.
New Zealand, excluding Auckland, rose 1.4% year-on-year, to $700,000.
Nine regions saw median prices rise from January 2025 and West Coast recorded a record high of $480,000, up $20,000 from its previous high in October 2025.
The national median price for the three months ending January increased 1.4% year-on-year, reinforcing that pricing trends remain steady, despite short-term monthly volatility.
“January’s housing market shows stable pricing alongside softer activity, suggesting confidence is rebuilding gradually rather than accelerating quickly,” REINZ chief executive Lizzy Ryley said.
“This likely reflects a combination of seasonal holiday conditions and unusual, severe weather across parts of the North Island and East Coast.”
Southern markets in particular had shown further signs of strengthening, with regions such as Canterbury, Southland and Otago continuing to show the strongest confidence signals, supported by sustained price growth, tight supply and resilient buyer demand.
But sales activity across New Zealand declined 5.4% year-on-year, with 3837 sales reported.
Excluding Auckland, sales were down 6.6% to 2848.
Nationally, seasonally adjusted sales counts fell 8.9% compared with December 2025, while in New Zealand, excluding Auckland, sales counts declined 6.7%.
“Interpreting the market over the summer can be challenging, as activity between November and February often reflects seasonal patterns rather than fundamental shifts,” Ryley said.
“Once seasonal trends are taken into account, the data shows the January market held up well.”
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
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