Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes today. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

AFFORDABILITY PRESSURES INTENSIFY
Food prices rocketed up +2.5% in the past month the highest monthly rise in food prices for four years, driving the annual food price rise up +4.6%. The RBNZ my have been comfortable with yesterday’s consumer future inflation expectations, but this January data won’t help. Interestingly, Foodstuffs claims that the cost of groceries from their suppliers only rose 2.3% in January from a year ago.

BUT NOT ON EVERYTHING
Included with the food price update were other selected price changes. They ranged from lower petrol prices (-4.8%) and higher electricity prices (+11.5%). Overall however, these components probably came in slightly lower than analysts were expecting.

TAKE A BREAK, DO OUR NEW QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week’s edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

RETAILERS ARE MORE UPBEAT
The latest Retail Radar report shows confidence among retailers is at a two-year high, with 77% of respondents saying they are ‘confident’ or ‘very confident’ their business will survive the next 12 months. This is a big jump on the 65% in the previous survey, and a positive sign that retailers may finally be starting to experience some gains.

RISK-BASED INSURANCE PRICING ENCOURAGES SHOPPING AROUND
Consumer NZ’s latest house and contents premium survey found relief in insurance prices in Auckland, while prices in Wellington and Christchurch continue to rocket. They say significant savings are on the table for some people as house insurance premiums rise sharply in a few cities and drop in others.

EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is a full dairy auction tomorrow morning, and the derivatives market is signaling that the last week’s higher prices will hold or rise. In fact, SMP may get another good gain to extend its recent run of good form. WMP might inch ahead too.

CHANCE VOIGHT UPDATE
The FMA’s moves against the Chance Voight set of companies needs High Court orders to authorise it to progress its liquidation actions. But the High Court is not doing the “first call” until February 19, and wont start hearings until April 20 at the absolute earliest. 

NZX50 TURNS DOWN AGAIN, WIPES OUT Y/Y GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today and falling. That puts it down -3.4% over the past five working days. It is up a meager +0.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now essentially unchanged. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -2.1% so far today. Vista, a2 Milk, Goodman, and Gentrack lead today’s gains, while Contact, Oceania, Summerset, and Fletcher are the main decliners.

DELAYING CHILDBIRTH
StatsNZ is pointing out that updated demographic data shows the proportion of births to mothers aged under 25 years in 2025 reached a record low of 1 in 7 births, half of what it was a generation ago. There were 57,705 live births registered in 2025. In 1995 (around one generation ago), the number of births was similar, with 57,672 live births registered that year. In 1965 (around two generations ago), the number of births was slightly higher, at 60,045. Fourteen percent of births in 2025 were to mothers aged under 25 years (‘younger mothers’). This is down from 28 percent in 1995, and 46 percent in 1965. The median age of mothers who gave birth in 2025 was 31.7 years, up from 28.6 years in 1995 and 25.5 years in 1965.

MORE INDIGESTION
Results from the latest survey for the Reserve Bank show a sharp rise in expectation by businesses of the level of inflation in two-year’s time – which is the key timeframe the RBNZ looks at.

SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are probably stable today after yesterday’s late softness. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.51% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.70%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.17 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps from yesterday at 4.48%. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Monday’s rate down -3 bps at 4.44%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from this time yesterday, now just on 4.04%.

EQUITIES MIXED BUT QUIET
The local equity market is lower in Tuesday trade, down -0.5% on an extended down trend. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.7% in its opening trade. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed for the CNY holiday. Singapore is closed today too. Wall Street is on holiday, President’s Day, and won’t be back until Wednesday, our time.

OIL HOLDS
American oil prices are little-changed from this morning at just under US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is now over US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been very few trades again today on the secondary market and the price is still at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen marginally from this time yesterday, down -US$71/oz and now at US$4959/oz. Silver is down-US$2 at just under US$76/oz.

NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 85.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.5 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN STILL STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$68,680 and and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has stayed modest however at +/- 1.9%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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