Across the Tasman, the S&P/ASX 200 Index had gained 0.28% to 8,962.5 points at 6pm NZ time.
Matt Goodson, managing director of Salt Funds Management, said no one was expecting any change in the official cash rate (OCR) in the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement.
But the local market will show strong interest in the nuances and the bank’s view of the pace of inflation (currently 3.1%).
“There is a view that the bank went a bridge too far when it reduced the OCR to 2.25%,” Goodson said. “Inflation pressures are easing, but the bank has been way too volatile in the OCR movements when swap rates are higher.”
He said the January Selected Price Indexes showed that food inflation remains, while other sectors, such as housing and transport, have declined.
ASB said the monetary policy statement will be pivotal. “It’s the big switch in the narrative in a short space of time – from concern that a stuttering economy meant a lot of excess capacity weighing on inflation to now concerns that recovering demand growth will hit a sluggish economic speed limit, causing inflation to linger too high for too long.
“For the Reserve Bank, that means a change in tone to ensuing inflation will be slayed, rather than standing by with an adrenaline syringe for emergency resuscitation,” ASB said. “There will be no lingering hint that interest rates could fall further – the narrative is about when the OCR will start going up.”
Other stocks
Goodson said Contact Energy held up well when it resumed trading following its surprise capital raise at $8.75 plus the ex-dividend of 16c a share.
“It was a relatively small raise based on its market capitalisation of $9.2 billion, and the stock would have gone into safe hands rather than flippers.”
Contact Energy was down 39c or 4.07% to $9.20 after completing the $450m placement of shares as part of the $525m capital raise to fund renewable energy projects brought forward and to increase balance sheet flexibility for future development.
Contact is also making a retail offer to raise up to $75m, with the ability to accept oversubscriptions.
Ebos Group and Infratil joined Fisher & Paykel in leading the market lower, falling 43c, or 1.78%, to $23.74 and 20c, or 1.83%, to $10.74, respectively.
Summerset decreased 21c or 1.97% to $10.46; Oceania Healthcare shed 3c or 3.7% to 78c; Synlait Milk declined 3c or 6.12% to 46c; and Tourism Holdings was down 9c or 3.83% to $2.26.
Other decliners were T&G Global decreasing 7c or 2.57% to $2.65; Vulcan Steel down 26c or 3.27% to $7.68; Winton Land shedding 4c or 2.02% to $1.94; and Blackpearl Group easing 3c or 2.91% to $1.
A2 Milk continued to climb after its strong first-half result, increasing 69c or 6.57% to $11.19.
Vista Group rebounded 14c or 8.54% to $1.78; Gentrack was up 18c or 2.63% to $7.03; Serko gained 6c or 2.67% to $2.19; and Sanford added 15c or 2.08% to $7.35.
Goodman Property Trust increased 4c or 3.15% to $1.90 after telling the market it is expecting a $112m, or 2.7%, increase in the valuation of its portfolio to $4.9b, as at the end of March. This would increase net tangible assets by 7c a unit.
Goodson said there is an interesting divergence with the performance of the listed property companies – their prices have been weaker lately, yet they still have reasonable rental growth and cap rate contraction.
“The market feels heavy on the selling side for property stocks.”
Santana Minerals declined 12% or 10.39% to $1.03 after telling the market it has firm commitments from institutional investors to raise A$130m (NZ$152) through a placement of new shares at A90c ($1.05) a share.
Santana is also introducing a share purchase plan for eligible shareholders to apply for up to A$24,948 ($29,223) worth of new shares at A90c.
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