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NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are back in focus after the company unveiled an expanded multiyear deal with Meta Platforms. Meta plans to deploy millions of NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs and networking products across its AI data centers.
See our latest analysis for NVIDIA.
The Meta agreement lands at a time when short term momentum has cooled, with a 7 day share price return of 1.9% decline and year to date share price return of 2.1% decline, even as the 1 year total shareholder return sits at 32.7% and the 3 year total shareholder return is close to 8x. This signals longer term enthusiasm that recent volatility has not erased.
If you are looking beyond a single AI chip leader, this is a useful moment to see what else is building traction across our screener of 34 AI infrastructure stocks.
After a muted start to 2026 and huge gains over the past three years, the question is simple but important: is NVIDIA still trading below what its AI potential suggests, or has the market already priced in years of future growth?
According to the most followed narrative, NVIDIA’s fair value sits at $170.26, which is below the last close of $184.97, and that gap is what matters here.
Nvidia will hit $400b annual revenue in 5 years time. ~90% of revenue will come from data centre customers. This equates to $90b / quarter, or equivalent to 30,000 Blackwell racks (at approximately $3m per rack). At 150kW per Blackwell rack, data centres will need to expand at 4.5gW/quarter to keep up. Global data centres are expected to increase wattage at 15% per year, which in 5 years time will be close to the 18gW annual increase required. AI (GPU) data centres have higher yields than other data centres, so some amount of use conversion is also expected.
Curious how this narrative gets to a higher price than $170.26 fair value yet still sees upside in NVIDIA’s earnings power and margins over time? The full story rests on how fast revenue could compound, what profit share NVIDIA might hold in AI data centers, and which long term multiple could make that math work.
Result: Fair Value of $170.26 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, the narrative leans heavily on Nvidia maintaining GPU and software dominance while avoiding regulatory or political shifts that could restrict AI demand or data center power growth.
Find out about the key risks to this NVIDIA narrative.
If this mix of optimism and concern leaves you on the fence, take a moment to review the numbers yourself and move quickly to shape your own view by weighing the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
If you are only focused on NVIDIA, you might miss other opportunities. Use this moment to scan broader ideas that could better match your goals.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NVDA.
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