Ghana’s ‘historic’ 3.8% inflation and analysis of annual trends under the 4th Republic [Charts]

The rate at which prices of goods and services rise is usually a common measurement of how bad or well an economy is being managed. In Ghana, inflation, unemployment and the exchange rate have become common metrics often used in economic discourse by political actors.

According to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), inflation also known as Consumer Price Inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. It is measured as the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) between two periods.

In January 2026, inflation fell to 3.8%, the lowest in about 27 years. It was also the lowest since the 2021 rebasing of  the Consumer Price Index to include the six regions created in 2020. 

The CPI measures the “change over time in the general price level of goods and services that households acquire for the purpose of consumption.” This could include a basket of many things, numbering at least 307 items, which is categorized into food and non-food inflation. 

Fig. 1 – Ministry of Finance flyer on January 2026 inflation 

Food inflation includes items like cereals and cereal products, live animals and animal parts, and vegetables and fruits among others. Non-food inflation meanwhile, includes items such as transport, clothing and footwear, and electricity and water. 

While the national average appeared very low, regionally, the inflation rate could be higher for some areas. In the North East region for instance, year-on-year inflation was recorded at 11.2% – far higher than the national average of 3.8%. 

“At the regional level, the year-on-year inflation rate ranged from -2.6 percent in the Savannah Region to 11.2 percent in the North East Region. Eight regions recorded an inflation rate above the national average of 3.8 percent,” the Statistical Service said. 

Fig. 2 – Government Statistician Alhassan Iddrisu presenting the January CPI figures 

Political reaction to 3.8% inflation 

Since the inflation rate of 3.8% for January 2026 was announced, opposition criticism has remained that the low rate does not reflect the lived realities of Ghanaians. “As I am hearing that figure, I am also getting a lot of messages from people who are saying that what they see on the market doesn’t exactly correspond with that. 

“I am sure when the government’s statistician appears before us [Parliament], we will have an opportunity to interrogate the data that they have and match it to what is really happening on the market,” Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, Minority MP and Ranking Member on Parliament’s Economy and Development Committee said. 

The John Dramani Mahama-led administration has on the other hand celebrated the development as a milestone, having inherited a double digit rate of 23.8% in January 2025. 

Government Spokesperson, Felix Kwakye Ofosu wrote on his X handle: “On the back of the 3.8% inflation rate recorded for January, 2026, it bears placing on record that the NDC has the best economic record under the fourth republic.” 

Since the government took office on January 7, 2025, inflation largely remained double-digits for the first eight months, until it got into single digit territory from September onwards. 

Fig. 3 – Inflation trajectory in 2025 Source: GSS

What accounts for the big drop in inflation?

Factors such as the cedi’s year-long appreciation against the dollar, and the Bank of Ghana’s Gross International Reserve (GIR) increase have been mentioned among others. 

In the BoG’s Monetary Policy Report for November 2025 for instance, the Bank notes that the downward trend is reflective of the “combined effects of tight monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, easing global inflationary pressures, bumper harvest, and a strong appreciation of the Ghana cedi in the second quarter of 2025.” 

This piece presents Ghana’s inflationary journey, the changes in the trends and the annual rates under the various governments of the 4th Republic. 

Finance analyst weighs in

In a piece posted on X explaining how the national inflation basket works, Edem Kojo, a Finance and Data analyst wrote: “The Ghana Statistical Service tracks prices of 307 food and non-food items across 8,337 outlets nationwide. Each item is assigned a weight based on how much of an average household’s income is typically spent on it. 

“The average price change across all these items, weighted accordingly, is what we hear announced as the national inflation rate. This means that while some items will record inflation far above the national average, others will record much lower inflation—or even deflation.”

He added: “The 3.8% inflation rate is an average across all 307 items. Chances are, you did not purchase all 307 items in a given month. If the items you consume most frequently happen to be those with inflation well above the national average, then naturally, you will not feel relief in your pocket.

“So the next time you hear an inflation figure, remember this: It is an average—and you are almost certainly not the “average” person. Your personal inflation depends on what you buy, how often you buy it, and how those specific prices are moving.”

Inflation trends under the 4th Republic

Since the start of the Fourth Republic in 1992, Ghana’s inflation rate has experienced significant fluctuations. After recording 13.3%, in 1992, the rate rose sharply, peaking at 70.8% in 1995, one of the highest levels recorded in the Fourth Republic, before declining toward the end of the decade at 40.5% in 2000. 

Note: All annual inflation figures used in this piece are sourced from the Bank of Ghana data portal, the Ghana Statistical Service and The World Bank. 

Fig. 4 – Annual inflation trajectory between 1993 and 2000 (The Jerry Rawlings years)

The early 2000s saw a gradual moderation in inflation. Between 2001 and 2007, inflation trended downward, falling from 21.3% in 2001 to 12.7% by 2007. Inflation started an upward trajectory reaching 18.1% in 2008. 

Fig. 5 – Annual inflation trajectory between 2001 and 2008 (The John Kufuor years)

However, the subsequent years marked one of Ghana’s most stable inflationary periods. Between 2010 and 2012, inflation fell into single digits, hovering around 8 to 9%. From 2013 to 2016, inflation returned to double digits, rising to 17.7% in 2015 before easing to 15.4% in 2016. 

Fig. 6 – Annual inflation trajectory between 2009 and 2016 (The John Mills / John Mahama I years)

Inflation then declined again between 2017 and 2019, reaching a low of 7.9% in 2019. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic reversed these gains. Inflation climbed from 10.4% in 2020 to 12.6% in 2021, before surging highly to 54.1% in 2022, the highest level in over two decades. It reduced in 2023 and 2024 but remained elevated, at 23.2% and 23.8% respectively. 

Fig. 7 – Annual inflation trajectory between 2017 and 2024 (The Akufo-Addo years)

A significant shift occurred in 2025, when inflation declined steadily throughout the year, falling from 23.8% in 2024 to 5.4%, the lowest level in decades. The highest  inflation rate recorded under Ghana’s fourth republic is 70.8% in 1995, while the lowest is the current rate of 3.8% for January 2026.

In the table below, we look at the five highest and lowest annual inflation rates under the Fourth Republic. 

HighestLowest 199570.820255.4202254.120197.9200040.520118.58199434.220108.6199632.720128.8

Pre-1992 inflation trends

Ghana’s political landscape between 1966 and 1992 was defined by a series of military interventions that disrupted civilian rule for three different epochs. 

The different military juntas typically came to power often citing economic mismanagement, corruption, or social unrest as justification. The first intervention occurred in 1966, overthrowing the First Republic, and was followed by several cycles of military takeovers throughout the 1970s and 1980s. 

These periods were characterized by the suspension of the constitution and the implementation of varied economic policies including strict price controls leading to the adoption of structural adjustment programmes in the mid-1980s.

The NRC and SMC Era: 1972 – 1979

This era began with Col. Ignatius Kutu Acheampong’s overthrow of the Second Republic in 1972 and spanned three successive military councils: the National Redemption Council (NRC), the Supreme Military Council I (SMC I), and the Supreme Military Council II (SMC II). 

According to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) data, inflation under the National Redemption Council (NRC) (1972–1975) started at a low of 2.2% in July 1972 but surged to a peak of 38.8% by August 1975. 

Under the Supreme Military Council I (SMC I) (1975–1978), World Bank and GSS records show prices skyrocketing to a peak of 155.3% in May 1977. The Supreme Military Council II (SMC II) (1978–1979) attempted stabilization, with GSS data showing inflation hit a high of 108.5% in November 1978 before falling to 51.1% by the end of the regime.

The Provisional National Defence Council (PNDC): 1981 – 1993

The PNDC, again led by Jerry John Rawlings, took power on December 31, 1981, and remains Ghana’s longest-serving military administration. This period witnessed both the worst economic crisis and a significant recovery. 

According to the GSS, inflation hit an all-time historical peak of 174.1% in June 1983, a figure corroborated by World Bank reports citing the severe national drought and repatriation of citizens. Following the adoption of the Economic Recovery Programme (ERP), GSS data showed inflation crashed dramatically, reaching a remarkable period of deflation at -2.2% in February 1985. 

By the transition to the Fourth Republic in late 1992, World Bank and GSS sources both showed the regime had stabilized inflation to approximately 10% annually.

Notable Discrepancy Analysis

The most significant data point in this history is the 1983 Peak, where both World Bank and Bank of Ghana (BoG) sources agree that December 1983 was the most severe inflationary point, exceeding 142%.

The World Bank and BoG/GSS data align very closely for year-end snapshots, with minor differences of 0.1% to 0.4% stemming from varying rounding protocols used by the different organizations.

Conclusion

With consumer price inflation at 3.8% in January 2026, comparisons have been made to one of the lowest rates recorded in almost 3 decades ago. Inflation trends often provide insights into the economy because of what it means for living standards and the real value or purchasing power of money. What remains to be seen if the government will continue to consolidate measures that will keep the rate within the single-digit band for the years to come.