Elon Musk once killed Starlink coverage mid-battle to stop Ukraine from sinking Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

But now Musk has decided to limit Russian access to Starlink, severely hampering Russian operations.

Since the Russians have lost access to the communications technology, Ukraine has seized more than 400 square kilometers of land from the Russians, and liberated eight villages.

“Without a doubt, our forces are exploiting the problems that the Russians are having with Starlink,” Ukraine’s president Volodimyr Zelenskyy said.

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The reason for the change of heart is unknown, and Musk has not made a public comment on it, but the change happened shortly after a Starlink-equipped drone hit a passenger train in Kharkiv in January, killing five.

Defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov appealed directly back to Musk. Shortly after, SpaceX killed every terminal in Ukraine not on a government “whitelist.”

The directive to SpaceX staff was unambiguous: “No limits. Take off the gloves; use Starlink for anything to help Ukraine,” a person familiar with the plan said.

The battlefield impact is clear, but whether Musk’s reversal can meaningfully alter the course of the conflict is another question.

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The odds of a ceasefire continue to slide. The market ‘Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31’ is at just 3%. It has the odds of a ceasefire by the end of the year at 36%, down from 50% in December. Over $10 million has been traded on this market.

Polymarket has a market on what cities Russia will enter by June 30.

The odds for most cities have seen a decline this month, reflecting both the passage of time and the stalled Russian advance. Kramatorsk, an important industrial city, has seen its odds fall from 26% to 19% since the beginning of the month.

Starlink is operated by Musk’s SpaceX, which runs nearly 10,000 satellites in low Earth orbit, roughly two-thirds of every active satellite in the sky. No competitor is close. The technology just proved it can reshape a 1,200-kilometer front line with a single policy change.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Starlink’s role in a dust-up with Polish officials, saying Ukraine would have ‘lost this war long ago’ without it. That kind of geopolitical leverage could only add to SpaceX’s valuation.