While a bloody coup, in which an alternative challenges the incumbent, seems unlikely at the moment, the MPs who usually hose down unhelpful leadership speculation were suspiciously silent on Friday.
This isn’t like 2020. The National Party caucus of today still feels the scars of cycling through three leaders within months. Most MPs place a higher premium on stability than those who rolled Simon Bridges, kicking off a volatile period in the party.
Most of the front bench remember that time with anguish. Those who didn’t live through it have heard the stories. This is not a trigger-happy caucus.
That said, Friday’s poll translated into election results would mean many backbenchers losing their jobs – and a few frontbenchers too. National would lose 12 MPs on these numbers. You can bet those MPs are considering Luxon’s future, as well as their own.
Luxon has a lot of respect within the party. MPs spoken to by the Herald stressed he is liked by a lot of MPs. This is not a rancorous caucus, as was the case when Luxon came to power, when furious MPs passed a motion of no confidence in the leadership of Judith Collins.
They appreciate the fact that he united National after becoming leader in late 2021 and then helped to drive Labour from power in 2023. If Luxon is to go, they wish to give him the opportunity to go with dignity.
Christopher Luxon’s future as Prime Minister is being speculated on. Photo / Michael Craig
There are rumours that Luxon is considering his future, but short of admitting this is the case himself, those rumours can’t be substantiated to a high level of certainty. Luxon can’t admit he’s considering his future, because that would effectively bring about his end.
All we can do is wait until his scheduled Monday morning media round with the big broadcasters.
If Luxon was going to take advice from anyone, it would be former Prime Minister Sir John Key. However, the Herald has confirmed, as of Friday afternoon, they had no solid plans to talk.
One view within the party is that Luxon will be given the weekend to make his own decision. You can detect in a subset of this view the hope that Luxon, in considering his position, will stand down.
If he doesn’t – and it is a possibility – MPs who want Luxon to go may begin undermining him. That may include briefing unfriendly details to the media. That could get particularly ugly just months out from the election.
Some MPs, particularly those on the conservative side of the party where Luxon fits, will continue to support him for as long as he wants the role. But they are more than aware of the risk he is at.
That risk was accentuated this morning by comments made by his deputy, speaking on Newstalk ZB’s Wellington Mornings.
Nicola Willis was blunt in saying the 28% recorded by National was “not a good number”, if reproduced by National at the election it would be unacceptable, and it had not been a great week for the Prime Minister.
She said if this result came to fruition in November, that would likely mean a Labour Government and that would be “terrible for New Zealand”.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis was blunt with her comments on Friday. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Asked if Luxon was the right person for the leadership, she said, “He has the backing of the National Party caucus.
“What is really important for New Zealanders is we are a united team,” Willis said, adding that Luxon was keeping the coalition unified.
She also said she didn’t believe a coup would occur before the election. That, of course, does not rule out Luxon resigning.
Those comments, coming from a deputy, were about as scathing as you can get before being outright disloyal. It suggested a balancing act between Willis’ loyalty to the current regime and the fact that she has to position herself for a potential future one. To some listeners, this interpretation was unfair (she did, to be fair, emphasise caucus unity), but to others, it sounded scathing.
Compare her comments with those of Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith, who said it had been a “reasonably tough” couple of weeks, “but we are going to turn that around”.
“[Luxon] won’t be going anywhere. He is doing a very good job.”
The candidates
The National Party caucus elects its leader in a secret ballot. If Luxon resigns, or if he were challenged, the caucus would have the ultimate say over what comes next.
One of the challenges that faces National is the lack of a clear, obvious frontrunner.
Senior minister Chris Bishop at the end of last year appeared to be consolidating support. But he wasn’t able to get it across the line.
Bishop’s position is, however, challenged. He’s a standard bearer for National’s liberals, who form a minority of the caucus. He also comes with the baggage of the Todd Muller coup of 2020.
The other problem for Bishop is the controversy over his Auckland intensification plans that have put noses out of joint in Auckland, home to a large number of National MPs.
National’s Chris Bishop has been talked about as a contender. Photo / Mark Mitchell
But going in Bishop’s favour is that he is extremely talented in all the ways Luxon is not. A champion debater, Bishop would quite easily be able to argue himself out of the corners in which Luxon all too frequently finds himself trapped.
Friday morning, as news of the poll broke, was not unlike the series finale of the sitcom Friends, which ends with the question of whether the protagonist Rachel Green gets on a plane to Paris or disembarks to spend her destiny with flaccid love interest Ross Geller.
Did Bishop get on the plane? He did, and at the time of writing is winging his way to India via Singapore.
The other key name that is thrown around is Erica Stanford. Her performance, particularly as Education Minister, has received much praise, including topping the Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom. Importantly, she also comes from Auckland.
She has largely disabled education as a political issue, an achievement given Labour tends to monopolise that issue. While the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor showed Labour was still more favoured to handle it, it had fallen out of the top 10 issues.
But Stanford, as the Herald has previously reported, isn’t considered by some in the party as a team player. She has incredibly high standards.
Education Minister Erica Stanford has been praised previously. Photo / Anna Heath
Willis, yet another of the National liberals, is another contender. But her tenure as Finance Minister has earned enemies in caucus and diminished her popularity.
Plenty of National MPs support her calls to cut taxes and cut spending, but when the state of the economy is one of the things weighing National down, elevating the Finance Minister to the leadership is a tall order.
Another Auckland-based minister in a favourable position is Mark Mitchell. Maybe the MP from the conservative faction with the most positive public appeal, he can also point to results. His law-and-order agenda has been popular with voters.
He is one of the MPs who will continue to support Luxon as long as he holds the premiership. If there is a vacancy, however, don’t rule him out. His name has been floated in the past for the leadership, and he may see now as his final shot at the top job.
Could this be Mark Mitchell’s time? Photo / Mark Mitchell
Mitchell is well-liked among MPs. He’s quiet and comfortable enough with his conservatism not to alienate liberal voters National needs to win back, a fact that can’t be said for the conservatives’ other standard-bearer, Simeon Brown.
In all likelihood, the party will try to stitch up these competing issues: conservative-liberal, Auckland-non-Auckland, into a leader-deputy ticket. There would also be a desire to have the next leader agreed behind closed doors, without a messy, out-in-the-open contest. Expect a lot of horse trading behind the scenes.
But that’s assuming that Luxon actually goes.
And as of Friday afternoon, National isn’t entirely sure the Prime Minister is considering his future.