Solar power is on a meteoric rise around the world. Over the next five years, solar photovoltaics will account for an astonishing 80 percent of new renewable power additions, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency. And that will amount to a whole lot of added capacity on a global scale. Despite a pivot away from clean energy in some policy spheres, renewables have simply become too cheap to fail, and installations are expected to more than double by 2030.
A huge amount of the world’s installed solar pv growth has been made possible by China’s unprecedented and unrivalled investment in expanding its photovoltaic supply chains. A flood of cheap solar panels out of China has fuelled a global renewable revolution while also helping to establish China as the world’s first electro-state. While other countries are advancing homegrown renewable manufacturing sectors, “concentration in China for key production segments is set to remain above 90% through 2030” according to the International Energy Agency’s Renewables 2025 report.
While China’s domination of the global solar sector has been a major boon for the Chinese economy, as well as Beijing’s political leverage in terms of both hard and soft power, the solar boom is set to leave the country with a major problem. A huge wave of solar installation leads to a huge wave in solar panel decommissioning, and that wave is about to crash upon Beijing.
Solar waste is a huge issue in the global renewables market, expected to amount to a staggering 88 million tons by 2050. At present, virtually all spent solar panels go directly to landfill, presenting a massive-scale issue for the environment as well as for resource loss. The scale of this issue is set to explode, as low- and middle-income countries experience a boom of small-scale solar using panels with relatively short lifespans. While utility-scale solar operations use panels with a lifespan of approximately 22 years, many of the solar panels supporting solar booms in emerging economies last just four or five years before they have to be decommissioned or, ideally, recycled or repaired.
Related: No Missiles, No Drones: What Happens When Rare Earths Stop Flowing?
As the scale of this issue balloons, solar panel recycling has received a fair amount of attention in research. But the recycling process remains costly and complex. In fact, recycling a solar panel costs about ten times more than trashing it. A 2021 article from the Havard Business Review states that recycling a single panel costs an estimated $20–$30, whereas sending that panel to the landfill costs just $1–$2.
As such, recycling photovoltaic solar panels is “a money-losing enterprise” according to MIT. Addressing the global solar waste issue will require a coordinated and cross-sectoral effort to make the venture economically viable. “Boosting recycling rates will take a mix of new solar panel designs, recycling technologies, and policy,” the MIT Climate Portal article goes on to say.
But now, China is making bold claims that it is going to begin recycling solar panels in huge numbers. Beijing is attempting to lead the charge on various scrapping methods as China prepares to contend with 1.5 million tons of solar panels that will need to be recycled or otherwise scrapped by the end of the decade. A recent notice from six Chinese government agencies states that the nation intends to recycle 250,000 tons of solar panels by just 2027. The government also says that it will encourage manufacturers to use recycled materials in the production of new products.
It’s not clear exactly how China is going to accomplish these lofty goals, but the rest of the world will likely be able to learn a great deal from the mass-scale pilot project. “Recyclability is a problem that can be solved,” says MIT, “and the world’s rapid transition to clean energy gives us a rare chance to address our waste problems from the ground up.”
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com