Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the US economy ended 2025 weaker than previously reported, with inflation more stubborn than ever. Things will only get worse from there for them as it seems to be on a losers track.

It will be no surprise to learn that US core PCE inflation rose at a +3.1% rate in January, its most since late 2023. And the rises in December and January were at more than a +4.5% annualised rate. Given subsequent events, it seems unlikely this rate will have eased since.

It its second interim report, the US economy expanded an annualised +0.7% in Q4-2025, far less than the +1.4% advance estimate, and the weakest performance since a contraction in the first quarter of 2025. Downward revisions came for exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Imports decreased less than previously thought. It is turning out economic expansion is far less now than at any time during the Biden presidency.

The January JOLTS report showed more openings than in the five-year-low December report, but these were still -6% lower than a year ago.

Meanwhile, the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey fell as expected in its March edition, to a three-month low, but inflation expectations didn’t fall as expected. The shifts were comprehensive across all income and age groups. War uncertainty and the rising fuel costs were the [obvious] triggers. Those petrol prices are up +18% now from a year ago, up +9% in a week. The darker mood is very obvious from two years ago (before Trump 2), with sentiment down -30%.

Meanwhile the Congressional Budget Office is sounding the alarm about where US federal debt is tracking. Page 3 of their February report shows the essential corruption – personal income taxes are up +10% (and you can be sure that does not relate to billionaire ‘taxpayers’), corporate income taxes are down -33%. Even the ‘tariff tax’ collections are essentially taxes on Americans collected at the border. These are up +US$109 bln, about the same as the rise in personal income taxes. The result seems to be that US Treasury debt held by the public is currently 101% of nominal GDP and without changes will rise to 175% of GDP in 30 years.

In Canada, their labour market shrank in February and by an outsized -83,900 following a -25,000 decrease in January and sharply missing forecasts for a +10,000 gain. Job losses were concentrated in full-time positions which were down -108,400, so the report is grimmer than it first seems. It has been called a ‘brutal’ jobs report, and will undoubtedly end the Bank of Canada’s hiking cycle.

India loan growth rose +14.5% in February from a year ago, maintaining its high rate of expansion (and almost three times their GDP growth).

New passenger vehicle sales in India hit a record high in February, up more than +10% from the same month a year ago, but to be fair, this overall market is nothing like China – or the the US for that matter.

China new yuan loans rose +¥900 bln in February, just as was expected. But that gain was slightly less than the +¥1 tln in February 2025, and much less than the +¥1.5 tln in February 2024.

It won’t be a surprise to know that the prices of most hard commodities are rising. But some ubiquitous ones like plastics (polyethylene +32%), steel (hot-rolled coil steel +13%), aluminium (+14%), and bitumen (+35%) have all jumped sharply in 2026. This won’t be good for inflation control.

And of course there is a global scramble for fuel underway, one New Zealand is unlikely to win.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +8 bps from Friday, up +17 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is flatter at +55 bps (-2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is steeper at +23 bps (+2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at steeper on +59 bps (+5 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at just over 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps bps at 2.25%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.99%, up another +2 bps from Friday, up +10 bps for the week. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today little-changed at 4.69% but up +17 bps for the week.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is lower in Friday trade, down -0.4% so far, down -0.8% for the week. Overnight European markets were lower between London’s -0.4% and Paris’s -0.9%. Yesterday Tokyo fell another -1.2% to end its week down -1.4%. Hong Kong dropped -1.0% but was up +1.6% for the week. Shanghai was down -0.8% on Friday, unchanged for the week. Singapore was down -0.3%. The ASX200 fell -0.1% on Friday for a weekly gain of +0.2% . And the NZX50 also ended down -0.1% on Friday, but down -2.5% for the week.

The Fear & Greed index has now moved into the ‘extreme fear’ zone, after being hard over in the ‘fear’ zone last week

The price of gold will start today down another -US$62 from yesterday at US$5057/oz, down -US$98 from a week ago. Silver is down -US$4 at US$81/oz today, down -US$3 from a week ago. One thing that is not happening is bringing in more US oil rigs into production in the US, even with these higher prices – yet anyway.

American oil prices are up +US$2, at just under US$97/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$101/bbl. A week ago these levels were US$90 and US$92/bbl respectively. The Straits of Hormuz remain essentially closed, the situation still extremely unstable

The Kiwi dollar has slid another -50 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 58.1 USc. That is a -1c drop in a week, down -1.5%. But against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.8 AUc. We are down -70 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down another -40 bps at just over 61.8, down -1.4% for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,970 and up +2.2% from this time yesterday, up +5.4% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.

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