The FHB share is holding higher than the 26% it was in 2024 and sub-26% in 2023, as this group takes advantage of lower mortgage rates, lower house prices, and low-deposit lending allowances at the banks, and taps into KiwiSaver.
FHBs are important in the overall ecosystem because they come in predominantly in the lower to middle parts of the value spectrum and add liquidity, enabling existing owners to move on/up.
First-home buyers hit a record 27% share of property sales in 2025. Photo / 123rf
2. Mortgaged multiple property owners have been making a comeback
Our data show a subsection of this group, the “mum and dad” investor, has driven the upswing despite being smaller players in the overall property investment market. This cohort had a market share of 24% in 2025, which is about normal and is up from 22% in 2023, a low in the cycle.
These investors are buoyed by being able to claim mortgage interest deductions once again, while lower mortgage rates are reducing the size of any cashflow top-ups. They may face a medium-term restraint from debt-to-income ratio caps, possible capital gains tax, and potentially a shift away from the expectation of ever-rising house prices.
3. Movers
Movers, or owner-occupiers who are relocating, are ones to watch as the economy turns around. They have been fairly quiet, with a share of 27% in 2025 (typically they sit closer to 30%). This group tends to build confidence as economic conditions rebound, so this group could grow the most this year.
In that event, there could be flow-on effects for insurers (new/changed policies), retailers (new big-ticket purchases), valuers and mortgage advisers (more activity) and banks, which will want to retain existing customers as they shift and win any new ones when they are shopping around for the best deal. In a highly competitive environment, movers will give the banks plenty of work to do.
The cohorts that make up the remaining 20% or so are often buying in cash.
The movements in market share are provoking energetic activity among the big banks. And the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) dovish signalling on February 18 to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% probably justifies swelling confidence among both borrowers and lenders.
Bank lending is on the rise – in December 2025 it totalled $14.1 billion according to RBNZ data, $3.6b more than the previous strongest month of March 2021 (for the 12 years of recorded data).
Most significantly, bank-switching activity, or refinancing, is up. This accounted for $5.8bin lending in December 2025, more than double the previous high of $2.6b in July 2025. “Refi” accounted for 41% of the total flow of lending in December, well above the previous highest share of 30%, in June last year.
About 20% of property purchases in New Zealand are made in cash, meaning no mortgage lending is involved. Photo / 123rf
This was all about the cash-backs – you will recall that the banks were all offering 1.5% cash for lending during part of November, which then fed into December’s strength once most of the loans had actually been drawn down.
Broadly speaking, borrowers with large loans – but also seemingly large incomes – played a key role in this switching activity. Indeed, the share of lending being done at a high debt-to-income ratio (DTI) dropped fairly sharply in December. In relation to investment collateral, high DTI loans fell from nearly 17% of the total in November (before exemptions) to around 12% in December.
Many borrowers on short-term fixed or floating rates switched banks in this period because there was no downside; sometimes they may not have even needed a new valuation. There was still a rump of switching going on in January, reaffirming the present themes of rebounding buyer cohorts and banks that are only too happy to serve them.
There might be 10,000 more properties changing hands this year than last, so it’s a bigger pie – but it’ll still be important for banks to help their existing customers and compete hard for that market share among relocating owner-occupiers.
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