35m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:31amBreaking: Reserve Bank hikes interest rate
The RBA has hiked its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.1% at its latest monetary policy board meeting.
1m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:05amIncreased penalties and surveillance on fuel prices: Chalmers
Jim Chalmers has turned to fuel prices, with the consumer regulator meeting with industry representatives today.
The treasurer says penalties and surveillance measures will be increased.
He says the ACCC has the power to act on dodgy behaviour in the market.
“Suppliers and retailers must not treat motorists as mugs.
“They are on notice.”
Chalmers says the ACCC “will throw the book at them” if they do the wrong thing.
5m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:01amThis will put additional pressure on people: Chalmers
Treasurer Jim Chalmers is speaking in Canberra.
He says at a time of uncertainty, the rate hike will put additional pressure on Australians.
6m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:00amCash rate back to 4.1% after two hikes in 2026
The 0.25 percentage point rate hike takes the cash rate to 4.1% — that’s back where it last sat between February and May 2025.
So in 2026, we’ve seen the RBA essentially undo two of the three rate cuts it delivered in 2025.
Business reporter Gareth Hutchens will be updating this story over the coming hours:
10m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:56amMiddle East conflict poses ‘risks in both directions’: RBA board
The RBA board’s post-meeting statement says the conflict in the Middle East “poses substantial risks in both directions”.
“A longer or more severe conflict could put further upward pressure on global energy prices; this will push up near-term inflation and could also increase inflation further out if it impairs supply capacity or price rises get built into longer term inflation expectations.
“Higher prices and prolonged uncertainty may cause growth to be lower in Australia’s major trading partners and also in Australia.”
Questions about how the board is weighing up these risks to inflation and growth will no doubt be put to the RBA governor in less than 40 minutes’ time.
14m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:52amMarkets now pricing in just a 30% chance of a follow-up rate rise in May
Checking the latest futures pricing on Bloomberg, financial markets are now pricing in just a 30% chance of a follow-up rate hike at the next RBA meeting in May, after the two delivered today and last month.
That makes sense given how split the board was over today’s rate rise, with four out of nine members clearly wanting more time to assess the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict before lifting rates.
Clearly, markets believe other board members will join them at the May meeting in wanting to assess the economic data before hiking rates even higher.
The economists at Australia’s big four banks all forecast there will be a follow-up hike in May, although those predictions predated today’s meeting outcome.
But it’s not all good news for borrowers. Financial markets are still pricing in the likelihood of two more rate rises by early next year, which would take the cash rate to 4.6 per cent — slightly above its post-COVID high of 4.35 per cent.
23m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:43amHome loan borrowers facing higher repayments
If you’re on a variable mortgage and make the minimum monthly repayment, those are likely to rise after this afternoon’s rate hike.
We haven’t heard from lenders yet about passing on the hike but it’s fairly safe to assume they will.
Here are the numbers Canstar crunched on the impact of a March hike, as well as the cumulative impact of the past two meetings:
29m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:37am
‘Material risk’ inflation will remain above target: RBA board
As expected, the Middle East war and the inflation fallout is top of the RBA board’s post-meeting statement:
“While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025.
“Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures.
“In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation.
“Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen.
“As a result, the Board judged that there is a material risk that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously anticipated.”
30m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:36amAussie dollar down and ASX heading higher in initial wash-up
Just a few minutes since the decision, the Aussie dollar initially took a little dive — it’s down 0.1% against the greenback to 70.6 US cents, from around 70.8 US ahead of the rate hike.
And the ASX 200 is up around a quarter of a per cent.
32m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:34amRBA board split on decision to hike, with five for hike and four against
Here’s what the last line of the RBA statement reveals about the split decision to hike rates:
“Today’s policy decision was made by majority: five members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent; four members voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85 per cent.”
35m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:31amRBA hikes cash rate to 4.1% in March
The Reserve Bank board has delivered a 0.25 percentage point hike at its March meeting.
37m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:29amAussie dollar and ASX higher a few minutes out from RBA
The Australian dollar remains 0.2% higher at 70.8 US cents.
The ASX 200 is 0.2% higher at 8,599 points.
40m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:26am
The first correspondent on the scene
The Reserve Bank’s press conference room is looking a bit deserted.
You know it’s a 3:30pm AEDT appearance from Michele Bullock right, David Taylor?
RBA press conference room (ABC News: David Taylor)43m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:23amAll four major banks forecast hikes in March and May
It’s not unheard of for market predictions and leading forecasters to be wrong, but it is worth noting that all four major banks’ economics teams expect a rate hike today and another in May.
However, we only have to go back to July 2025 when the RBA held the cash rate steady, compared to overwhelming market expectations of a rate cut that month, to know the unexpected could occur.
47m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:18amStock markets around the region mostly higher
The ASX 200 is up 0.1% at the moment, after falling back towards the flatline over the past few hours.
Here’s how Asian markets are faring:
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 +0.5%Shanghai Composite +0.1%Shenzhen Component -0.2%Seoul’s Kospi 200 +3%Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1%
55m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:11am
📺 Coverage of RBA decision on ABC News Channel
If you want to watch coverage of the decision on ABC News Channel you can do so at the top of the blog.
My colleagues Alicia Barry and David Taylor are on deck and will be joined by experts for reaction at 2:30pm AEDT.
And of course we’ll bring you RBA governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 3:30pm AEDT.
1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:03amHow the RBA’s cash rate has been tracking
A 0.25 percentage point hike would take the RBA’s cash rate to 4.1%.
Here is how it has tracked so far:
1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 2:51amAussie dollar around 70.8 US cents
The Australian dollar has pushed higher against the greenback over the past few hours.
AUDUSD (LSEG Refinitiv)
The Australian dollar is up 0.2% to around 70.8 US cents, as the RBA decision approaches and crude oil prices rise.
1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 2:30amT-1 hour until RBA interest rate decision
Thanks for joining us here on the live blog.
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Here’s what’s coming up:
2:30pm AEDT RBA board decision3:30pm AEDT RBA governor Michele Bullock press conference
As always, we’ll have the market reaction, details of the statement and live coverage of the press conference in the aftermath.
Stick with us — you can also watch ABC News Channel:
1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 2:24am
More of your views on interest rates
Interest rate rises are a poor tool to manage inflation in the current environment. It’s unfortunate that those with the large disposable incomes are most likely to have their homes paid off and be unaffected by rate rises. Additionally much of inflation is driven by supply side issues unconnected to consumer behavior such as increased costs due to climate change.
– Kat
Why not use a flexible GST to control inflation instead of interest rates. That way every consumer shares the burden not just borrowers particularly mortgagees struggling with home loan payments?
– Greg
Would it not make more sense to hit us with a 50 basis point hike and take us back to where we were 12 months ago rather than small 25 point hikes that in the words of the great Paul Keating “do us slowly”. I am leveraged high so this will hit me hard!
– Matt
The interest rate hike will not effect the spending of those with disposable income the baby boomers. From my experience of running a small business they are the people spending because they have no mortgage, large super balances.
– Phil
It is not ‘too many’ people have excess disposable income, it is that there is too much disposable income held by a very small number of people who receive profits from price gouging during national crises. And increasing interest rates won’t stop their spending (that is, buying more assets) at all. As our country experiences greater and greater income inequality interest rates will become both less effective at stopping inflation (because the actual inflation is all being driven by the big corporations and super rich) and much less fair (since it only squeezes people in dept to big corporations and their super rich owners, whose profits are never allowed to be affected). Interest rate increases are not going to work, we need real and serious tax reform. Tax wealth, not work!
– Webba
Monetary and fiscal tools like interest rate rises, spending cuts, and lending restrictions hurt people, but inflation can destroy an economy, a society, or a country. A few years ago a cafe owner was picking my brains about the possibility of high inflation, and while I was talking abstract stuff, I realised that one of the waiters I knew there would was living in Zimbabwe when hyperinflation hit there. It was much more interesting to hear his stories of working in a business where they shut the doors to spend a morning counting paper money in order to process a payment.
– Bof
Thanks for joining us here on the blog and sharing your thoughts.