Rachel Reeves is a financial crisis all on her own. She took an economy that was starting to recover and crushed it. Growth, inflation, employment, tax, debt, spending, benefits and the deficit are all going the wrong way on her watch. She insists she’s got a plan but so did the captain of the Titanic. Now a global crisis is brewing, and Reeves is accelerating towards the iceberg. I can’t imagine anybody less equipped to cope with what’s coming.
The most obvious trigger is war in Iran. Donald Trump hasn’t thought this through. He didn’t even bolster the US oil reserves in advance, even though everybody knew Iran would respond by attacking global energy supply. Now he’s bluffing in his usual way, claiming victory and trying to drag others in. Too late. As a patriotic Brit, who won’t forget how he insulted British troops who fought and died in Afghanistan, I say we owe him nothing.
Every percentage point rise costs taxpayers £10billion a year. That blows another hole in Reeves’s fiscal headroom and limits her ability to support households. But this is only the start. While attention is fixed on the Middle East, a deeper financial threat is gathering pace. It risks turning into a second financial crisis. Just like the one we saw in 2008.
This danger lies in something called the shadow banking sector. Since regulators tightened rules after the financial crisis, hedge fund managers have poured trillions into lightly regulated areas like private equity. Now they’re desperately trying to get their money out, as private credit lenders collapse in a domino effect.
Big banks are heavily exposed to these cowboys through their lending books. It looks eerily familiar to anyone who remembers the lead up to the 2008 crisis. Back then it was subprime mortgages. Today, people who borrowed money to bet on private equity are about to get cleaned out. And we’ll have to pick up the pieces. Again.
So what is Reeves doing protect us? Nothing. Like the amateur she is, the chancellor is piling in just as everybody is scrambling to get out. What did you expect?
Artificial intelligence is another terrifying threat, with US tech giants pouring hundreds of billions into something whose consequences are unknowable. If AI works, it could wipe out swathes of previously profitable businesses, leaving banks with loans that won’t be repaid. If it flops, AI ‘hyperscalers’ will be the ones to collapse. Basically, it’s lose-lose.
We can’t blame Rachel Reeves for AI, even if it sounds like her speeches have been written and delivered by ChatGPT. But she’s the last person I’d choose to handle this looming multiple crisis. The worst chancellor in our history, at the worst possible time. If she hits that financial iceberg, we’re all sunk.