Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Mutual Credit Finance raised all its TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

LANDLORDS LOSE THEIR MARKET POWER OVER TENANTS
Trade Me Property says median rents were down -3.1% year-on-year in February with renting getting easier and more affordable for tenants, even those with pets.

TRADE DEFICIT JUMPS $700 MLN
StatsNZ says February exports rose only +0.4% from year-ago levels while imports rose +11.8% on the same basis. That resulted in a merchandise trade deficit of -$257 mln in the month, far worse than the +445 surplus in the same month a year ago, but less than the -$319 mln deficit in February 2024. This is not a good point from which to go into a global trade mess.

WHAT HAPPENED WITH OUR FIVE MAJOR TRADE PARTNERS
Our country trade deficits with Australia, Japan and Korea got sharply worse in February compared to February a year ago. Our surplus with the US held. Our surplus with China halved. Trade with these five countries represent almost 60% of all our exports.

NOT SPENDING ON TRACTORS
Farmers may be making lots of money, but one thing they aren’t doing is spending it on new tractors. Only 130 were registered in February, down -13% from a year ago to the lowest February level since 2010. In between an average February saw 173 tractors sold.

NO MOMENTUM
Domestic billings on credit cards issued locally softened a bit in February, to be +2.1% higher than year-ago levels. That can all me accounted for by inflation – in fact real billings will; likely have eased. That weakness isn’t resulting in users using the [expensive] debt facilities of these cards any more than they have. In fact only about half the card balances are not paid off in full monthly, close to a series low.

SLOW GROWTH
BNZ said its analysis of the SEEK job ads activity shows It was more of the same in the February. Ad numbers are trending higher and building momentum, albeit off a low base. Ads for the latest three months (Dec – Feb) are +3.9% above the previous three months (Sep – Nov). Combined with the modest lift in January filled jobs, the labour market is continuing to recover in early 2026. This is consistent with their economic forecasts. They say the conflict in the Middle East is more likely to dampen, rather than stop employment growth.

DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week’s edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

AN UNWELCOME HIGH
Where we are (Auckland) it is a great warm early Autumn day with warm temperatures. So it is a bit of a puzzle why wholesale electricity prices are so high today. Any clues? (H/T TR)

NZX50 LOWER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today. It is heading for a -1.5% weekly drop, and down -1.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +1.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another -1.7% so far today. There were just 22 overall market gainers led by

GOOD DEMAND, HIGHER YIELDS
We missed noting this yesterday, so here it is now. The $450 mln NZ Government bond tender of three maturities brought 125 bids worth $1.4 mln. Interestingly, The May 2041 long bond was very popular with 42 bids. The 5.01% yield for that bond it is highest since May 2025.

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SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be higher today on building uncertainty. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps at 2.51% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 5.00%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also unchanged at 2.26% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74%, up +2 bps from this time Thursday. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Thursday rate up +8 bps at 4.68. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from yesterday, now back at 4.26%.

EQUITIES STAY NEGATIVE
The local equity market has fallen -0.4% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Friday down -3.4% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.5% and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is also down -0.1%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade down -0.3% on the S&P500. 

OIL FALLS
American oil prices have fallen -US$6 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$93/bbl as Trump realises he has to pull back somehow, while the international Brent price is down -US$4.50 to just under US$106/bbl. Things are fluid and confusing in the Persian Gulf.

CARBON PRICE DOWN
There have been more trades so far today on the secondary market, but the price has fallen -$2.50 to $39/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen another -US$170/oz and now back at US$4676/oz. Silver is down -US$2 to US$74/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +70 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just over 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.5 and up a net +50 bps from where we were this time yesterday.

BITCOIN DROPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,353 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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