180 000 infections in 2024, 47 000 by 2045 — if South Africa rolls out the twice-a-year HIV prevention jab fast enough

Bhekisisa analysis

— South Africa will receive its first batch of the once-every-six-months HIV prevention shot, lenacapavir, soon. Roll-out in government clinics is set to start within the next couple of months, the health department says — depending on when the first batch of medicine arrives, and by when samples of the shipment have been quality-tested.

— The government will have to dig deep in its pocketbook to make sure the country reaps the full benefit of this prevention medicine in the aftermath of the Trump administration’s defunding shocks of 2025.

— The first batch is part of doses paid for by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. But in total, the Fund will only donate 3% of the stock required to end AIDS by 2043 in the country. The rest would mostly need to come from the national and provincial health departments’ own budgets.

So how best to spend the HIV prevention budget so that South Africa can drive infections down as fast as possible?

Bhekisisa takes a look at what modelling data shows.Read the full analysis here.