Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no rate changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ has changed (raised) its BusinessFirst on call rates today. Update: ANZ has changed its Serious Saver account by cutting its standard rate by -35 bps and increasing its bonus rate by +40 bps. That will get then you a potential 1.55% bonus saver rate. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

BUSINESS CONFIDENTS PLUMMETS, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS SURGE
ANZ’s Business Outlook survey for the March month captures a rapidly darkening mood across the economy as realisation dawns the Middle East crisis won’t be short lived.

PROPERTY MARKET IMPLICATIONS
How will this souring outlook affect the residential and commercial property markets? We may get our first indications tomorrow. The starting place isn’t very positive. QV says it saw flat overall housing values flat overall in Q1 this year but there were big regional variations.

DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week’s edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

SOME VERY LARGE CASH TRANSACTIONS
Fonterra said today that its $4.2 bln sale of the Mainland brands to Lactalis is now settled. The way is now clear for Fonterra farmer shareholders to receive a $3.2 bln payout in two weeks’ time.

PAYOUT FIRMS
And speaking of the dairy industry, Westpac has raised its current season payout forecast to $9.80/kgMS, above the Fonterra interim forecast, and above all other main dairy analysts. You can find them all compared here (at the bottom of that page).

STILL BORROWING FOR HOUSES
Households borrowed +$1.27 bln more in February than in January for housing, the smallest net rise in a year.

MAKING FEW CHANGES, MARKING TIME
The average household term deposit size rose marginally in February to just under $90,000, little-changed from the same value a year ago. Meanwhile household bank deposits were also little-changed with an early suggestion that current account cash balances are again getting priority. In fact, the small +3.7% annual rise to February for household deposits was the lowest since 2010.

NZX50 TURNS UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. It is heading for a +0.9% weekly rise, but down -3.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +4.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is back up a chunky +2.7% so far today. Air NZ, Investore Property, F&P Healthcare, and Heartland gain while Tourism Holdings, Fletchers, Channel Infrastructure, and Vulcan Steel are the top decliners.

VERY BIG LGFA OFFER COMING
New Zealand Local Government Funding Agency is offering up to $850 mln unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate sustainable financing bonds maturing on 15 May 2034 to institutional and retail investors. The offer includes $150 mln of Sustainable Financing Bonds reserved for subscription by the LGFA. (If the full ‘oversubscription’ allocation is taken up, this may be the largest issue ever for the LGFA, and by some margin.)

FOREST OWNERS IN TOUGH SQUEEZE
Things are going to get tricky for forest owners trying to harvest and sell their logs. Forest owners need higher prices as harvesting costs jump significantly. But domestic demand is turning very uncertain. Export markets may get less supply without higher prices. Fortunately a lower NZD helps them, but not local buyers

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INFLATION JACKS UP AU RATE HIKE PROSPECTS
Suddenly, financial markets now see the RBA moving purposefully to try and tamp down Australian inflation impulses. From juts one hike priced in yesterday, today markets are pricing in three +25 bps hikes and taking their policy rate to 4.85% in 2026. In any event, rising Australian rates will have an impact on us. Also see this.

IGNORING SHORT TERM INFLATION HERE?
New Zealand analysts are now considering how the RBNZ will respond to the deteriorating signals. Financial markets are currently pricing in no change to the OCR next week, less than half a chance of a +25 bps rise in May, but a full change of a rise in July, again in October, and again in December, which would end 2026 with a 3.00% OCR – and more in 2027. But events are fluid …

LUCKY COUNTRY
War impacts aren’t bad for every government. Consider this Westpac summary about the Australian federal budget impacts. “Higher‑than‑assumed commodity prices are expected to deliver the Federal budget a windfall of almost $60bn over the five years to FY30. Around $20bn of this uplift reflects the impact of the Middle East conflict, particularly via higher coal and LNG export prices. This more than offsets the $2.6bn cost of halving the fuel excise for three months. The run‑up in gold prices since FY24 is estimated to add around $19bn to Treasury revenues over the next five years. This broadly aligns with Department of Industry forecasts showing gold export receipts rising by around $40bn in FY26 relative to FY24. Higher inflation and the cyclical upswing are boosting nominal incomes, consistent with the March monthly statements showing income and indirect tax revenue were around $7.0bn and $2.5bn ahead of MYEFO estimates, respectively. The inflationary impulse from the conflict is expected to provide further near‑term support to revenues.”

SURCHARGING BAN TO START IN OCTOBER – OVER THERE
RetailNZ’s rearguard lobbying against banning card surcharging in New Zealand may have worked (temporarily?), but the Aussies have seen through the flimsy reasoning, and are now on track to ban retail surcharging there by October 2026. Then they are going after similar rorts for mobile wallets, three-party card networks, ‘buy-now, pay-later’ services and e-commerce platforms.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed again today as markets weight the chances of Trump cutting & running. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.54% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 5.01%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.35% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Monday rate up +1 bp at 4.78%. The UST 10yr yield is down -7 bps from this time yesterday at 4.33%.

EQUITIES FIRMER
The local equity market has risen +0.6% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Tuesday up +0.4% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.2% and Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore is also up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade on a down note with the S&P500 slipping -0.4%.

OIL EASES BACK
American oil prices have dipped -US$1.50 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$10 at US$105/bbl. But that was before news of a large Kuwaiti oil tanker now on fire in the Persian Gulf after being hit by Iran.

CARBON MARKET QUIET
There have been no transactions we can find so far today on the secondary market, so the price is holding at $41.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold has rised +US$138/oz and now back up at US$4610/oz. Silver is up +US$6 at just under US$72.50/oz.

NZD HANGING IN THERE
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday against the USD, still at just on 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -25 bps at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.3 and little-changed from yesterday..

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,966 and up +2.1% from this morning’s open. Volatility has remained modest at +/- 1.7%.

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