Mere hours after threatening the death of an entire civilisation, US president Donald Trump has shown surprising willingness to join the table with his arch nemeses in Iran to sort out a peace deal.
Time will tell if Trump manages to frame this conflict into a win – Iran still has enriched uranium (despite being the very catalyst for the war in the first place), Iran has shown how capable it is in hobbling global energy supply, and the Islamic Republic is bruised but not beaten.
Pakistan-mediated negotiations are meant to take place this Friday, although Iran has threatened to withdraw if attacks on Lebanon continue.
If it is technically a ceasefire, it’s surely a brittle one, although that is apparently enough to temper the Australian rate outlook, if only slightly.
The three-year government bond fell to 4.56% yesterday evening, from above 4.7% earlier this week, bringing it back in line with mid-March levels. This suggests traders have lowered their bets on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) committing to three more interest rate rises this year.