INFLATION UP?
The IMF said CPI would increase to 1.5 percent this year, while the DGBAS projected it would rise to 1.68 percent, with GDP per capita of US$44,181

By Jonathan Chin / Staff writer, with CNA

The IMF projected Taiwan’s real GDP would grow 5.2 percent this year, up from its 2.1 percent outlook in January, despite fears of global economic disruptions sparked by the US-Iran conflict.

Taiwan’s consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase to 1.5 percent, while unemployment would be 3.4 percent, roughly in line with estimates for Asia as a whole, the international body wrote in its Global Economic Outlook Report published in the US on Monday.

The figures are comparatively better than the IMF outlook for the rest of the world, which pegged real GDP growth at 3.1 percent, down from 3.3 percent expected previously.

Photo: EPA

China’s growth is anticipated to be 4.4 percent, slightly down from the 4.5 percent projected in January, while its outlook for next year was unchanged at 4.0 percent, the report said.

The projected growth for North America, the eurozone and the Middle East were all downgraded to 1.1 percent due to repercussions from the US-Iran conflict, it said.

The IMF warned of severe economic effects in Iran, Qatar and Iraq, with the report saying that their economies are anticipated to shrink 6.1 percent, 8.6 percent and 6.8 percent respectively.

Separately, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) yesterday said that Taiwan’s economy is expected to grow by 7.71 percent, 4.17 points higher than its estimate in October last year.

The larger-than-expected projection was driven by the resolution of Taiwan-US tariff negotiations and unabated interest by investors in artificial intelligence (AI), the DGBAS said.

The favorable tariff agreements that Taipei’s negotiators struck with Washington in January, which exempted or reduced the excises on semiconductors and peripherals, removed uncertainty from Taiwan’s AI sector, it said.

Cloud service providers have continued to increase their capital investments in Taiwan, leading to a hot export market that has spurred growth, the DGBAS said.

Taiwan’s GDP is projected to top US$1 trillion and GPD per capita would be US$44,181, while CPI would rise to 1.68 percent, it said.