The first move would be for Luxon to be presented with evidence of his flagging support in caucus, potentially triggering his resignation and a change of leadership.
Should Luxon not resign, a challenge may take place. There is no formal challenger at this stage, only a group of MPs who do not support Luxon’s leadership, the Herald understands.
Parliament has been in recess for the past two weeks, with Luxon announcing his reshuffle before the recess began. It returns for two weeks of sitting before going into recess again.
When Parliament returns that time, it will be for the sitting block dominated by the Budget, which most political analysts would say is a bad time to remove a prime minister because it risks destabilising the entire Government. Waiting until after the Budget may leave things too late.
All eyes are therefore on the next two weeks – a case of now, or not quite never.
Luxon was asked by RNZ’s Morning Report last month if he had asked his ministers whether they all backed him.
“I haven’t needed to because I have their support,” Luxon responded.
Whip ‘ghosted’ by leader
Luxon, the Herald has learned, faced intense pressure on his leadership in the last week of the last sitting block, a period that culminated in a long-delayed caucus reshuffle, which punished senior minister and rumoured leadership candidate, Chris Bishop.
That reshuffle had been precipitated by a late-night meeting of Mark Mitchell, Paul Goldsmith, Simon Watts and Simeon Brown, at which it appears to have been resolved that Luxon should reshuffle his Cabinet to calm an unsettled caucus.
No challenge was brought to Luxon in National’s caucus meeting on Tuesday of that week.
However, there was sufficient instability in caucus for a senior MP to trigger a party process to flag Luxon’s wavering support.
The Herald understands that MP was Stuart Smith, the Kaikōura MP who serves as party whip and whose job it is to monitor caucus and serve as a conduit between the back bench and Luxon as National leader.
In the last week of the sitting block, Smith tried to contact Luxon about ructions in the caucus, three sources told the Herald. The ructions had reached a point at which Smith, as whip, was obliged to notify Luxon. It is not clear whether Luxon retained the confidence of caucus at this point.
Luxon could not be contacted by Smith, sources said. For some time, the whip could not arrange any time to speak with his leader – a rare and extraordinary state of affairs, particularly when Parliament was sitting and both men were working in the same precinct.
This meant Smith could not relay the information to Luxon, which may have triggered the process for his potential departure as leader, sources said.
Smith did get in touch with National Deputy Leader Nicola Willis, who is believed to still be in Luxon’s camp and does not favour change.
A Luxon ally believed Smith contacting Willis was as good as being able to contact the Prime Minister himself.
Another source believed that had Smith reached Luxon it would have likely resulted in a formal caucus meeting, which could have led to a change.
A separate source said Smith’s discussion with Luxon at Parliament, had it taken place, would have presented the National leader with evidence his position was becoming untenable and that his support within caucus was not sufficient. This does not necessarily mean there was a majority for changing Luxon, only that the amount of support behind him was not as strong as what some felt a leader or Prime Minister should have.
National whip Stuart Smith. Photo / Mark Mitchell
In the eyes of Luxon’s critics, he ghosted the party whip to avoid facing his flagging confidence in caucus.
Luxon visited North Canterbury this week, part of Smith’s electorate. The Herald has not been able to ascertain what, if anything, they discussed.
A spokesperson for the Prime Minister said: “The PM has a busy diary, but is always available to MPs. He spent the day with Stuart on Tuesday.” The spokesperson would not address specific questions about the matters that sources discussed with the Herald.
The Herald reported during the reshuffle that National Party president Sylvia Wood was in Wellington on unspecified business. Wood regularly attends caucus. Two sources believed Wood’s presence was related to Smith’s effort to contact Luxon.
Wood was approached for comment on Thursday through the National Party.
Had Luxon lost the confidence of caucus, it is likely Bishop would have been one of the candidates to replace him. Other candidates, including those loyal to Luxon, might put their names forward should the Prime Minister lose the leadership in some way.
Who has the numbers?
It is not clear whether a majority for change exists and if it does, who would benefit from that change. The most speculated candidate, Bishop, remains unpopular with some Auckland MPs over his championing of intensifying development in the city.
Education Minister Erica Stanford is in the picture, too. From the same liberal camp as Bishop, it is not clear whether they would split each other’s vote to the extent neither could win a majority of caucus.
Plotters would prefer that Luxon, if faced with evidence of his ebbing support within caucus, would resign, leading to a dignified change. Luxon, however, seems unlikely to quit of his own volition, opening the door to a bloody contest.
The next few days are seen as crucial by insiders, who point to National’s position in the polls.
The latest Talbot Mills corporate poll has the party on 29%, about the same as the most recent Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll.
Labour is ahead on 36%, NZ First is on 15%, the Greens are on 7%, Act is on 8%, Te Pāti Māori are on 2%. Talbot Mills also poll for the Labour Party.
Luxon will face another poll next week. The latest 1 News-Verian Poll is likely to come out as soon as Sunday or Monday night.
But a bigger test may come even sooner.
On Sunday morning, Luxon’s likely challenger for the leadership, Bishop, is set to appear on TVNZ’s Q+A with Jack Tame. Luxon has pointedly declined to appear on the show, which is known for Tame’s long-form interviewing style.
It’s likely Bishop will be asked about the situation in caucus and his position within it.
One way or another, his answer will be keenly observed.