Australia’s EV market ‘flipped on its head’ by fuel crisis

Damaged electric vehicles are selling for the price of a new diesel or petrol car, as EV sales more than double since global oil prices began to rise.

EV sales still represent less than 10 per cent of all cars sold in Australia each year.

But the Strait of Hormuz being closed and global fuel prices rising have seen used EV sales in Australia more than double from 3176 sold in February to 7557 in March, figures from the Australian Automotive Dealer Association show.

Car and truck auctioneer Pickles is seeing the same supercharged demand for EVs, particularly when the cars are damaged or discounted.

The auction houses’ latest quarterly report details how at the end of March, Pickles Adelaide came to have 30 near-new cars from Chinese manufacturer BYD.

The cars had “external damage following a concrete spray incident” — 9300 people added the listing to their Pickles watchlist, and 41,000 people viewed the listing.

“The level of attention on the BYD vehicles showed how closely buyers are watching this category. When near-new EV stock comes to market with repair potential, buyers are prepared to move quickly,” Pickles Salvage general manager Nick Johnson said.

“We are seeing strong demand for repairable EVs resulting in a 35 per cent price increase across March compared to February, particularly where buyers can see a clear pathway to putting the vehicle back on the road.”

Tesla accounts for the bulk and three of the top 10 most sold salvaged EVs at Pickles.

But BYD is the second most popular make, also with three models in the 10-most sold.

The Chinese EV brands — BYD, MG, Chery and Great Wall Motors — have slashed the cost confronting Australian drivers when Teslas were first introduced.

BYD is now the sixth best-selling car brand in Australia with a six per cent market share. The Chery Tiggo 4 Pro is the third best-selling model overall.

Investment firm Global X ETFs sees these price reductions as cemented.

“Our analysis suggests that, over a typical 10-year ownership period, the average EV driver could now be up to $10,750 better off than a petrol or diesel driver,” Global X ETFs analyst Justin Lin said.

“Even under more conservative assumptions, where fuel prices normalise over time, the economics continue to favour EVs by a meaningful margin.”

Key factors of low petrol prices and high upfront costs — compared to petrol and diesel cars — of EVs in the early 2020 “have now flipped on their heads”, Mr Lin said.

With the Iran war serving as a second oil price shock in five years, Australian motorists have again been cautioned about the reliance on volatile oil markets.

“The recent surge in interest in EVs is likely, at least in part, a kneejerk response to rising fuel prices and may moderate over time, particularly as wait times at dealerships begin to lengthen,” Mr Lin said.

“However, it would be a mistake to underestimate the power of even a temporary boost as consumer network effects would likely take hold.

“Word-of-mouth validation and real-world proof of reliability reinforce confidence among prospective buyers. This can create a positive feedback loop that supports a more sustained reacceleration in EV uptake over time.”

The surge in EV purchases in March has absolutely slashed the supply pipeline, with available stock falling 38 per cent to 28 days, well below the 60 to 90 days the Australian Automotive Dealers Association considers “balanced”.

While Mr Lin argued EVs “had already broadly reached parity” on a “a total cost of ownership basis” with petrol vehicles in 2024, road transport expert and accounting senior lecturer Anna Mortimore said that was not quite right.

She points out the new model Kia electric SUV retails for $61,990 plus GST and stamp duty, versus $30,500 for Kia’s comparable petrol SUV, again without the additional taxes.

A spokesperson for the Electric Vehicle Council says price parity will be the next major “near-term” milestone for EVs.

“For many Australians, EVs are already cheaper to own even if they are not yet cheaper to buy,” the spokesperson said.

“Electricity is cheaper than petrol on a per kilometre basis, regardless of how and when EV drivers charge their cars. EVs are also around $3000 a year cheaper to service and maintain.”

The electric car discount subsidy and the new vehicle efficiency standards were key policies to “bring more efficient and lower-cost EVs into our market”.

“One of the clearest benefits of EV ownership is the insulation it provides from volatile global oil markets … Policy stability and the rollout of more charging infrastructure are vital to this continued momentum,” the spokesperson said.

The Victorian Automotive Chamber of Commerce sees a “structural” shift in Australia’s car market with this current fuel price shock.

Cheaper prices, particularly for Chinese EVs, combined with significantly lower running costs have narrowed the cost gap for motorists, chamber chief executive Peter Jones said.

“The March 2026 new vehicle sales data makes it very clear that something structural has shifted in the Australian market,” he said.

“The total cost of ownership calculation has been shifting in EVs’ favour for some time. What the current fuel price environment has done is make that calculation undeniable and urgent for everyday consumers.

“What we’re seeing now is the moment the numbers finally spoke loudly enough for mainstream buyers to act.”

Putting a date on when EVs outnumber petrol and diesel cars would be a fool’s errand mired in myriad factors, he said.

“What I will say is that the question is no longer if EVs become the dominant form of personal transport in Australia, but when — and the answer is coming sooner than most people predicted even 18 months ago,” he said.