South Island, services steal the jobs spotlight
Stats NZ data show health care and social assistance, public administration and safety, and education and training adding the most jobs over the year, while manufacturing and construction each fell 1.5%. Regionally, Canterbury, Waikato, and Otago led the gains, with Northland and Wellington slipping.
Westpac also highlights ongoing strength in public‑sector roles and tourism‑linked industries such as transport and hospitality, while noting continued weakness in manufacturing, and only tentative stabilisation in construction and professional services.
Jobs in Canterbury, Otago, and Southland are now above their 2023–24 highs, supported by strong agricultural export prices, leaving the South Island looking more upbeat than the North.
Banks flag higher unemployment and “stagflation” risk
Beneath the headline stability, bank economists expect unemployment to drift higher as labour supply, driven by net migration and participation, outpaces hiring.
In its Labour Market Preview, Westpac is forecasting the March‑quarter jobless rate to hold at 5.4%, with wage growth running at about 2% annualised given “the existing slack in the labour market”.