Home Value Index: Expert says NZ house prices may flatten or fall this winter

“[And] we’ve been here before, with small upturns at the start of 2024 and 2025 eventually going into reverse. With Iran-related uncertainty currently very high, it’d hardly be a surprise to see that pattern repeat in the next three to six months.”

Interest rates are expected to continue rising this year, which could peg house price growth. Photo / DepositPhotos

The Reserve Bank was watching closely for price effects from the Iran conflict, such as higher wage demands or raised inflation expectations, and there was a growing view they may begin raising the Official Cash Rate from July, Davidson said.

Either way, mortgage interest rates slowly rising and recent, modest house price increases flattening – or even reversing – wouldn’t be a surprise, he said.

“The housing market has lifted a little to start the year, but winter could easily see a sideways or downwards trajectory for prices.”

Property values remained “sluggish” in Auckland and Wellington, with 0.1% falls, while Dunedin was the best performer of the main centres, with an increase of 0.8% last month, the Home Value Index figures showed.

Property values rose 0.4% in Christchurch last month, and up are 3% in the last year, Photo / Nate McKinnon, RNZ

Christchurch and Tauranga rose 0.4% and Hamilton 0.3%.

Auckland’s flat result reflected variability across different parts of the city, with Papakura and North Shore up by 0.1%, Rodney and Manukau flat and Franklin, Auckland City and Waitākere down by 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, Davidson said.

Overall, Auckland property values are down 3% in the last year and 22.9% from peak, with a median value last month of just over $1.04 million.

“The improvement in Auckland’s housing affordability may set the scene for a pick-up in value growth in the medium-term … for now, it remains a purchaser’s market.”

Wellington had also shown “some hints of growth” this year, but values remained 1.1% down on a year ago, and 25% down from the peak, Davidson said.

The median value of property in the capital was $780,504.

“Wellington is still among the weakest areas of the country in terms of property value falls in the past four to five years, which is benefiting purchasers … first-home buyers are running at market shares greater than 35%.”

Uncertainty ahead of this year’s general election could also have a dampening effect on house prices in some places, Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says. Photo / Sylvie Whinray

The window of opportunity may not remain open forever, but with economic and election uncertainty looking likely to linger, Wellington’s property values may not move much this year, he said.

In Christchurch – where property prices didn’t rise as sharply in the early 2020s – property values were up 3% in the last year, and down only 1.6% on the peak to sit at just over $706,000 last month.

Tauranga also saw a modest rise in the last year, with values up 2% to top $932,000 last month, but in nearby Hamilton values fell 1.5% over the year and median values are now just over $740,000.

In Dunedin, property values are up 3.1% in a year, with a median value of $633,632.

In the regions, Hastings took the biggest hit last month, with property values down 1%, while New Plymouth logged a tiny 0.1% fall, Davidson said.

Napier, Palmerston North, Gisborne, Nelson, Rotorua, Whanganui, Queenstown and Invercargill were all up between 0.2% and 0.6%, and Whanganui 0.9%.

Queenstown is beautiful, but not cheap -median house values in the tourist favourite are more than $1.5m. Photo / Getty Images

Median values in regional centres ranged from $507,000 in Whanganui to $737,000 in Nelson, barring tourist mecca Queenstown, where the median value topped $1.5m last month.

Most regional centres had seen values rise from a year ago, although Hastings and New Plymouth were proving “a little more sluggish”, he said.

“It seems fairly clear that good growth lately in export industries, including agriculture and tourism, has been a factor behind higher levels of economic confidence and property market resilience in many regional areas.”

But higher fuel and fertiliser prices were also squeezing profit margins, and could take the shine off regional economies over the next few months.

“Given that, a re-emergence of some patchier property value figures could also be seen.”

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