Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank has raised some TD rates. Luminate have trimmed some rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
EYES ON FALLING HOUSE PRICES
NZ likely to see a slower recovery, affecting job growth and debt servicing, but banks and farmers well placed to manage economic shock as housing market remains soft, according to the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report. They also say that rising mortgage rates could reduce house prices further.
NO COUNTRY FOR YOUNG MEN?
The March quarter labour market data was out today. It recorded little change and is only of minor interest because the April Middle East events have overshadowed it. The economy was starting to regain some momentum in the early part of this year, but have clouded the outlook for both activity and inflation pressures in the months ahead. The RBNZ can conclude that we came into this shock with a labour market that was starting to improve but still had a substantial degree of slack. Of some concern is is effect the economy is having on 20-25 year old workers.
A PROFITABLE YEAR
Residential real estate sales commissions up +4% in the first quarter year-on-year, and up +19% compared to two years ago. That has driven these commissions to above $2 bln for the year. (An for a left-field perspective, that is 20% more than the average of each of the big banks profits.)
WITH A STORM EVERY EIGHT DAYS THAT TRIGGERS INSURANCE CLAIMS …
A growing risk to financial stability could come from emerging insurance pressures. ‘Concerns over affordability, climate change, and dependence on global reinsurance mean the situation could change quickly and warrants monitoring,’ the Reserve Bank says.
NZX50 JUMPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today. And it is up +3.2% from a week ago. It is down -2.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +6.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.2% so far today. Infratil, Serko, Vista and Tower lift the NZX50 sharply, while Gentrack, a2 Milk, SkyCity casino and Kathmandu hold it back.
LOOKING AHEAD
Treasury released a raft of documents today revealing its advice to the Government over the Middle East oil conflict implications. These underpinned the Government’s claim that the economic recovery was “delayed but not derailed”.
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation is seems little-changed.
Stock, days cover
Number of ships
Petrol
Diesel
Jet fuel
In-country
34.0
26.1
34.4
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
3
4.9
2.5
0.5
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
7
10.4
19.1
20.2
Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026
10
49.3
47.7
55.1
previously reported
In-country
34.9
27.1
31.4
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
3
6.1
3.6
0.0
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
9
11.7
22.0
27.3
Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026
12
52.6
52.7
58.7
previously reported
In-country
36.4
27.5
31.8
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
4
7.2
4.6
1.7
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
6
9.3
14.1
15.6
Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026
10
52.8
46.1
49.1
previously reported
Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026
10
51.8
41.3
45.7
previously reported
Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026
11
51.2
41.6
47.4
previously reported
Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026
13
54
44.8
51.4
previously reported
Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026
12
56.3
45.4
47
previously reported
Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026
14
59.7
49.1
50.7
previously reported
Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026
14
62.6
51.7
53.5
previously reported
Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026
16
61.9
51.5
50.1
previously reported
Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026
16
58.7
52.2
46.2
previously reported
Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026
15
59.3
54.5
50.4
previously reported
Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026
48.7
46.4
53.4
SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update
‘DON’T HOLD BACK’
In case you missed it yesterday, the RBA hiked its policy rate to 4.35% on inflation risks. And in the Governor’s post-meeting comments she gave the green light for firms to pass on rising costs into their own prices.
EMBARASSING BACKDOWN
We should note that the US has ‘paused’ its efforts to protect ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and will not longer protect them, “temporarily”. The announcement comes even though no ships actually got through under US protection.
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm which will be after the RBA decision is known. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.61% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down-1 bp at 4.99%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.76%. The Japanese 10 year bond is holding at 2.50% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.68%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Tuesday rate down -1 bp at 4.65%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.41%.
EQUITIES HIGHER
The local equity market is up +0.9% in Wednesday day trade so far. The ASX200 is also up +0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is closed for Golden Week. Hong Kong is up +0.9% and Shanghai is back from holiday and up +1.2% today. Singapore is unchanged at its open. Wall Street closed with the S&P500 up +0.8% in Tuesday trade.
OIL PRICES FALL BACK
American oil prices have fallen -US$3 with the WTI benchmark now just on US$101/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$4.50 at just on US$18.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $54/NZU, still its highest since late October 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RECOVERS
In early Asian trade, gold is higher at US$4640/oz, up +US$98 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just over US$75.50oz and back up +US$2.50/oz.
NZD MOVES BACK UP
The Kiwi dollar is up +70 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.6 and up +50 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,401 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.
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