Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU) shares are having a strong week.
This has been driven by a positive reaction to the release of a quarterly sales update.
The good news is that Bell Potter believes this ASX healthcare stock could still have significant upside potential over the next 12 months.
Let’s see what the broker is saying about the pharmaceuticals company.
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What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter was pleased with Neuren’s update, highlighting that Daybue sales were higher than it was forecasting during the first quarter. It said:
NEU’s commercial partner, Acadia Pharmaceuticals, provided a 1Q26 Daybue sales update, from which NEU receives royalties and milestones. Daybue sales were US$101.2m (+20% on pcp and -8% qoq), a beat to BPe US$96m albeit modestly below Acadia’s US analyst VA cons of US$104m. The 20% growth rate is a welcome uplift from the 11-14% growth in each of the last 5 quarters.
The broker points out that the new Daybue STIX offering is proving to be a strong addition to the portfolio. It adds:
A key driver of the step-up has been the launch of the new powder formulation, called Daybue STIX. Importantly, the improved convenience and flexibility of STIX is helping bring treatment-naïve and previously discontinued patients onto treatment rather than just converting existing patients. Roughly 30% of the 250 STIX patient prescriptions during 1Q were treatment-naïve or previously discontinued patients (split 1:1).
Another positive according to Bell Potter is that Daybue guidance for 2026 is looking achievable following this strong start to the year. The broker explains:
Acadia reaffirmed bullish CY26 Daybue guidance of US$460-490m sales, implying 18-25% growth. The +20% growth in Q1 falls within this ambitious range, thus confidence in meeting guidance is increased. At the end of the day, NEU receive a 10-12% royalty on sales, thus a few million +/- at the sales line makes relatively negligible impact to NEU; importantly, royalties show no sign of easing any time soon.
Following the result, we increase Daybue Nth American sales forecasts, however this is offset by removing previously heavily risk-adjusted EU sales. A reversal of the EMA’s original decision in June is not expected but would be a welcome surprise.
ASX healthcare stock tipped to rocket
According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $22.00 price target on Neuren’s shares.
Based on its current share price of $13.05, this implies potential upside of almost 70% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its recommendation, Bell Potter said:
No changes to our $22.00 PT or BUY recommendation. NEU’s biggest priority is quickly activating the 20+ US clinical sites and enrolling the 160 patients for its Phase 3 trial of NNZ-2591 in Phelan McDermid syndrome. The readout from this Phase 3 trial is the next company-defining catalyst event for NEU albeit remains some time away (end-CY27 pending recruitment). Before then, we will be looking out for updates in NNZ-2591’s other indications throughout 2H CY26, such as Pitt Hopkins and HIE.