Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

IT’S A DWELLING, NOT AN INVESTMENT
Cotality reports that more than 40% of first quarter apartment resales were sold at a loss with almost one-in-five Auckland residential sales loss making. Overall, more than one-in-10 residential properties sold at a loss in Q1-2026, they said.

DAIRY PRICES HOLD
The overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little-change in prices from last week’s full auction event.

EXPECTATIONS CONFUSE
The quarterly survey that the RBNZ commissions to measure expectations (M14) was out today and showed that one year inflation expectations are now up to 3.4%, from 2.6% in March and 2.4% a year ago. These are surprisingly tame levels given that March CPI was actually up 3.1%. That they are rising is no surprise, but the idea that those surveyed aren’t feeling stronger pressures is.

STILL ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSITIVES
We asked yesterday for some pointers to positive current economic data. We got no response from the many thousands of you who read that story. We are still interested.

DO THE QUIZ
Our quiz is updated this week and ready to challenge you, and see how you do compared with the many hundreds of other readers doing it too.

NZX50 SOFTER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today, heading for a weekly dip of -1.0%. It is down -4.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +1.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another very sharp -0.8% so far today, on top of yesterday’s dip and that is now a weekly fall of -6.8%. Stride Property, Vector, Contact and a2 Milk lead the gainers as Vista Group, Infratil, Gentrack and Spark are the main decliners.

MISLEADING WILL COST MORE
The Government is moving to increase the penalties for ‘misleading’ price offers. The Fair Trading laws are being amended to where the penalties for breaching most provisions, including misleading and deceptive conduct, will increase from a maximum of $200,000 for individuals and $600,000 for body corporates to the greater of: $1 million for individuals, or $5 million for body corporates; or three times the value of the commercial gain made or loss avoided; or the value of the consideration for the transactions that constituted the contravention. Kudos to the Consumers Institute that campaigned for tougher standards.

SECTOR STANDOUT
Radius Residential Car, an NZX listed minnow, has delivered a very strong result, proving that even in a sector where the majors are struggling there can be outperformers. Their shares are up +2.6% so far today, contrasting with Ryman’s -1.4% fall, Summerset’s -0.4% fall, and Oceania’s -1.4% retreat.

LGFA RAISES $150 MLN
The LGFA has a successful bond tender today, with the bids for the three maturities totaling 28, or which 17 were accepted. More than $319 mln was bid for the available $150 mln available.

FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed.

Stock, days cover
Number of ships
Petrol
Diesel
Jet fuel
In-country
 
29.6
22.3
28.4
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
2
5.1
1.6
1.2
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
10
24.3
21.3
20.6
Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026
12
59.0
45.2
50.2
 
 
 
 
 
previously reported
 
 
 
 
In-country
 
32.0
23.5
31.8
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
3
4.0
1.7
0.5
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
8
15.0
19.1
21.8
Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026
11
51.0
44.3
54.1
 
 
 
 
 
previously reported
 
 
 
 
In-country
 
34.0
26.1
34.4
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
3
4.9
2.5
0.5
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
7
10.4
19.1
20.2
Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026
10
49.3
47.7
55.1
 
 
 
 
 
previously reported
 
 
 
 
Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026
12
52.6
52.7
58.7
Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026
10
52.8
46.1
49.1
Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026
10
51.8
41.3
45.7
Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026
11
51.2
41.6
47.4
Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026
13
54.0
44.8
51.4
Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026
12
56.3
45.4
47.0
Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026
14
59.7
49.1
50.7
Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026
14
62.6
51.7
53.5
Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026
16
61.9
51.5
50.1
Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026
16
58.7
52.2
46.2
Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026
15
59.3
54.5
50.4
Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026
 
48.7
46.4
53.4
SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update

FLAT PROFIT TRIGGERS SELLOFF
Regional banking heavyweight CBA (ASB’s parent) posted a flat AU$2.7 bln quarterly profit result today. It hardly mentioned New Zealand except that the declining NZD weight on the overall result. It bumped up its provisioning and that has cased its share price to retreat more than -9% so far on concerns that economic headwinds and today’s budget measures that will affect the Aussie housing market will stall its lending growth.

STRONGER LENDING ACTIVITY
In Japan, bank lending was up +5.4% in April from a year ago, notably better than the expected +4.6% increase and a rise from March’s +4.8%. The April result is the fastest growth since March 2021. 

THE RBA RATE HIKES TAKES THE TOP OFF HOUSING LOAN DEMAND
Updated lending data in Australia reveals a pullback in Q1-2026 from Q4-2025. he number of new home loans fell -6.2% to 139,794 in March quarter. Falls were recorded across all borrower types this quarter, following strong growth throughout 2025 and cash rate rises in February and March. The value didn’t fall as fast, down -3.8%. Year-on-year this data is still positive, but the recent retreat was unexpected. A +5% increase was expected in Q1 from the prior quarter.

TRANS TASMAN STILL THE MOST POPULAR
New Zealand is the most favoured travel destination for Australians, with the April data cementing that status for a fourth straight month. And New Zealanders visiting Australia made up 14.1% of all their tourist arrivals, also the primary source.

REAL WAGE DECLINE
The Australian Wage Price Index was up +3.3% in the March quarter from the same period a year ago. But also recall, their CPI was up +4.6% in the same period.

SWAP RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates will probably be firmer today across the whole curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.66% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 5.08%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +4 bps at 2.59% today which we make as a new 29 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.79%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Tuesday rate up +4 bps at 4.71%. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps, now at 4.46%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is down -0.4% in Wednesday day trade so far. And the ASX200 is also down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.3% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.4% and Shanghai is down -0.1% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.8% at its open. Wall Street marked time again today, with the S&P500 down a minor -0.2% in Tuesday trade.

OIL PRICES UP MORE
American oil prices have stayed up, with the WTI benchmark up +US$1.50 at just on US$101/bbl, and the international Brent price is up +US$1.50 to just over US$106.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4691/oz, down -US$40 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just under US$86.50oz and little-changed from yesterday.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.9 and little-changed from yesterday.

BITCOIN STILL ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,023 and down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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