“The data preceding the GDP release averaged 96, while the responses that came in afterwards averaged just 77,” Zollner said.
“It’s important to note that the latter sample is very small (only 60 people, 6% of the sample), so the uncertainty about whether this is an accurate estimate of the national mood is high. Indeed, statistically it’s only just significantly different from the rest of the data, even though the spot estimate looks so dramatically different. So take it with a large grain of salt.”
She said it was entirely plausible there could have been a big impact considering a similar occurrence happened in 2024.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says it’s not all doom and gloom out in the economy. Photo / Corey Fleming
Caution remains the key word, as the proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose one point to -11.
Perceptions of current personal financial situations (better or worse off than last year) lifted 11 points to -13%. While not necessarily high, this question hasn’t been higher than -12% since early 2022.
But in bad news for next year, perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months fell three points to -23%. The five-year-ahead measure was more upbeat, lifting three points to +6%.
“The proportion of households saying that they feel worse off than a year ago has been steadily declining, even as unemployment has been creeping higher.
“That’s not to downplay the real pressures that some households are under, particularly those with lower incomes, given food price inflation and other cost-of-living pressures. But it simply isn’t the case that the economy is spiralling downwards.”
A net 14% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, up one point.
The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions was unchanged at 99, while the current conditions index jumped six points to 88.1.
Zollner said her view continues to be that the release of the second-quarter GDP data marked peak pessimism.
“The glass-half-full interpretation is that confidence probably would have lifted by more were it not for the GDP headlines. The glass-half-empty view is that confidence has probably taken a hit. How long the dampening impact on confidence might last will depend partly on whether the tenor of the data flow turns sluggishly or enthusiastically higher from here.
“Easier monetary policy is starting to feed through, and we expect the economy to put in a markedly improved performance over the next 12 months than the last – though that isn’t saying a lot, to be fair.”
Tom Raynel is a multimedia business journalist for the Herald, covering small business, retail and tourism.