Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RENTS FLAT FOR TWO YEARS
There was a high level of rental housing activity in the March quarter but rents remained flat overall. The national median rent has been unchanged at $600 a week for the last two years, even as rental transaction activity was up strongly in the March quarter.
DAIRY PRICES WILL STAY HIGH
While prices may have stayed elevated, the costs of dairy farming have too. This may crimp global supply flows. Rabobank is forecasting new season 2026/27 prices higher than the current season.
COMMERCIAL VACANCIES CONTINUE TO RISE, SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS
The volume of commercial property advertised for lease continues to rise. It is now 27,775 listings on realestate.co.nz, +4150 more now than at this time last year (+17.6%). +1140 of those extra listings have been in Wellington which is recording the sharpest annual rise (+32%). +476 of this annual rise is in South Auckland, +338 in Christchurch. The other city with a sharpish increase is Hamilton (+313 or +26%). Most other places are recording much more modest increases; in fact all the Auckland regions have seen falling listings since the start of April (including for South Auckland).
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed in volume terms. (Don’t ask about the prices.)
Stock, days cover
Number of ships
Petrol
Diesel
Jet fuel
In-country
32.4
21.6
29.7
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
3
0.7
8.0
10.4
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
10
20.0
19.5
13.7
Total NZ stock, May 20, 2026
13
53.1
49.1
53.7
previously reported
In-country
34.0
21.7
29.5
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
5
2.1
11.7
13.0
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
8
17.9
12.6
12.5
Total NZ stock, May 17, 2026
13
54.0
46.0
55.0
previously reported
In-country
30.6
19.9
27.1
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)
4
7.1
9.6
7.6
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)
8
18.5
16.8
13.0
Total NZ stock, May 13, 2026
12
56.2
46.3
47.7
previously reported
Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026
12
59.0
45.2
50.2
Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026
11
51.0
44.3
54.1
Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026
10
49.3
47.7
55.1
Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026
12
52.6
52.7
58.7
Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026
10
52.8
46.1
49.1
Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026
10
51.8
41.3
45.7
Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026
11
51.2
41.6
47.4
Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026
13
54.0
44.8
51.4
Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026
12
56.3
45.4
47.0
Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026
14
59.7
49.1
50.7
Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026
14
62.6
51.7
53.5
Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026
16
61.9
51.5
50.1
Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026
16
58.7
52.2
46.2
Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026
15
59.3
54.5
50.4
Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026
48.7
46.4
53.4
SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update
NZX50 FIRM AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today, with a weekly rise of +2.1%. It is down -3.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +3.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed from yesterday. Auckland Airport, Air NZ, Contact, and Scales lift the NZX50 to start week, but Gentrack, Vista Group, Investore, and Serko are the main decliners.
HOW THE RICH BUY IN GETS NEW OPTION
The Government has opened a philanthropic option for wealthy investor immigrants. Immigration Minister Erica Stanford says investor immigrants will be able to make philanthropic gifts comprising up to $1 mln of their minimum $5 mln investment in NZ. She says enquiry levels are strong for this ‘golden visa’ option, the Active Investor Plus Visa Growth Category.
WE BENCHMARK WELL
Fitch has been looking at government contingent liabilities in the Asia/Pacific region. Among all countries in this group, New Zealand benchmarks well. Here is a chart just among the developed economies.
A GREAT START, BUT IT WON’T LAST
Singapore said its Q1-2026 expansion was +6.0% from the same quarter a year ago, bettering the +5.7% expansion in the previous quarter, and better than forecast (+5.1%).. But their are much less bullish on how the year will turn out, revising that to “2%-4%” as Trump’s Gulf War takes it toll.
CHINA’S FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT STAYS VERY MODEST
China says foreign direct investment fell -10.3% in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Things got off to a negative start, but regained some initiative in April. (April 2025 was a particularly weak base.)
SWAP RATES SOFTER
Wholesale swap rates will probably show another dip in a global flattening trend, all about the ‘peace deal’ hopes. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.63% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.88%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -6 bps at 2.71% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.67%, down -5 bps from this morning. (The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Friday rate down -3 bps at 4.69%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -8 bps at 4.49%.
EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market has fallen away in the past hour so is now unchanged from its open. The ASX200 opened its Monday up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up even more, up +2.8% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.9% and Shanghai is up +0.8% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.5% at its open. Remember, Wall Street is on holiday (Memorial Day Weekend) but the futures market is strong on the ‘peace deal’ rumours, and the S&P500 futures pre-market trading is currently showing a +1.1% rise from its Friday close.
OIL PRICES DROP
American oil prices are down -US$5.50, with the WTI benchmark just on US$91.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is down the same at US$98.50/bbl. These shifts are all reacting to the ‘peace’ talk and pricing it in as a done deal. That same motivator is affecting the gold price, and the USD value.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been many trades today on the secondary market, but the price has dipped slightly to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up at US$4560/oz, rising +US$52 from this morning. Silver is now just on US$77.50oz and up +US$2.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning’s open against the USD, now just on 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.2 and up +20 bps from this morning.
BITCOIN MARGINALLY FIRMER
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,062 and up +0.6% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.9%.
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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