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NVIDIA (NVDA) just signed multi-year agreements in South Korea to secure next generation memory from SK hynix and to support gigawatt scale AI factories with SK Telecom and NAVER, reinforcing its data center centric AI roadmap.
See our latest analysis for NVIDIA.
Despite heavy news flow and new agreements, NVIDIA’s recent share price momentum has cooled, with the stock down 6.7% over the past week and 8.7% over the past month, although the 1-year total shareholder return of 40.5% and very large 5-year total shareholder return indicate longer term holders have still seen sizeable gains.
If you are looking beyond NVIDIA and want to see what else is shaping AI infrastructure, this is a good moment to scan the broader opportunity set through the 48 AI infrastructure stocks
With NVIDIA now valued around US$5,042b and trading at US$200.42, yet sitting roughly 49% below the average analyst price target of US$298.93, the key question is whether that gap signals mispricing or if markets are already baking in future AI factory growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 41% Undervalued
According to the most followed narrative, NVIDIA’s fair value of $339.90 sits well above the last close at $200.42, creating a wide valuation gap for investors to weigh.
Nvidia will hit $400b annual revenue in 5 years time. ~90% of revenue will come from data centre customers. This equates to $90b / quarter, or equivalent to 30,000 Blackwell racks (at ~$3m per rack).
Want to see what sits behind that $400b revenue line and heavy data center mix? The narrative focuses on aggressive revenue expansion, thick margins, and a premium earnings multiple that treats NVIDIA like a long term infrastructure platform, not just a chip supplier.
Result: Fair Value of $339.90 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, you also need to factor in risks such as tougher GPU competition and potential AI or energy regulation that could curb data center spending and NVIDIA’s pricing power.
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Another View: Cash Flows Paint A Tighter Picture
There is a wide gap between the $339.90 fair value in the popular narrative and our cash flow view. The SWS DCF model estimates NVIDIA’s future cash flows at $189.23 per share, below the current $200.42 price. This points to a stock trading at a premium rather than a discount.
For investors, that kind of split between story driven upside and cash flow grounded caution raises a simple question: which lens do you trust more when real money is on the line?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
NVDA Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NVIDIA for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 48 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Seeing mixed signals on NVIDIA’s value and future? Act while the data is fresh and weigh both sides by reviewing the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas?
If you stop with just one stock, you might miss other opportunities that fit your style, so take a few minutes to scan these focused shortlists.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NVDA.
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