Under the first scenario, it is estimated that between 20 and 50 jobs will be supported, with that figure jumping to 80-120 if the revenue generation is between $10m-$18m.
These economic returns and benefits are based on Moana playing two Super Rugby fixtures a year in Nuku’alofa and two in Apia (subject to Sanzaar approving Apia’s newly built National Soccer Stadium field as wide enough).
Both countries are heavily reliant on remittances from their diaspora, with significant amounts of this money being sent home by professional rugby players.
It is thought that Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Winston Peters will receive feedback from officials early next week, as he will need to approve the redirection of funds.
Well-placed sources believe he will be supportive of the proposal to divert money into Moana, which is searching for a saviour after its previous owner, Pasifika Medical Association (PMA), said in April that it would not fund the club after this Super Rugby season.
While any new owner might have to pay a fee to buy Moana’s brand and intellectual property rights, it would not be responsible for any of the $8m being chased by creditors.
The Herald has been told that the salvage bid by the Samoan and Tongan Governments, which is being co-ordinated by former Moana chief executive Pelenato Sakalia and supported by New Zealand’s Rugby Players Association, is the only option New Zealand Rugby (NZR) is considering.
It is understood that various private equity interests came forward as potential investors, but none were deemed to have either sufficient capital or the necessary capability.
The MFAT funding package has the necessary capital backing to meet the licence requirement of having permanent ability to cover 40% of the club’s operational costs.
But the club is still not certain to make it into Super Rugby next year, as NZR needs to be convinced that the business plan is viable.
As the Herald understands it, the plan forecasts that Moana will run at a cost of $10m a year, with an operational deficit of $5m likely next year.
Moana Pasifika could be back in Super Rugby next year if a proposed funding package is approved. Photo / Photosport
That shortfall will be covered by a $5m injection from the Tongan and Samoan Governments, with the operational deficit shrinking in 2028 and 2029 as commercial revenue grows, with 2030 being targeted as the point at which Moana will break even.
The $5m of revenue the bid is forecasting next year will come from $2m of central funding from NZR (this is effectively Moana’s share of broadcast rights), sponsorships, content and gate revenue.
It is understood that one heavyweight sponsor has agreed to commit a seven-figure annual payment conditional on the licence being granted, and that Sky will renew its estimated $300,000-a-year sponsorship, too.
Moana has run the most successful content strategy in Australasian sport in recent years, and its ability to engage and connect with young Pasifika (between 18 and 35) will be of significant interest to consumer brands.
It’s a revenue stream likely to be worth between $700,000 and $2m a year.
Moana Pasifika team celebrate their win over the Blues last season. Photo / Photosport
Questions will be asked about playing four games a year in the Islands, given the club has played just one in the last four years, with high costs (about $350,000 a game) and low returns cited as the reasons for not playing more.
It is believed the new plan still forecasts making a loss on games played in Samoa and Tonga, but the total deficit has been reduced by proposing to schedule back-to-back games in each country to cut logistical costs, and by seeking approval to follow the Fijian Drua model of having only six cameras, rather than nine.
Under this model, the costs per game will drop to an estimated $150,000. While this means Moana will lose money hosting fixtures in Samoa and Tonga, playing in the Islands is the critical driver behind the Government investment.
For their remaining home games next year, it is understood that Moana will look to partner with whatever three New Zealand clubs they are scheduled to play and stage those fixtures in regional venues.
This means, for example, they would work with the Blues to take a game to Whangārei, the Hurricanes to Napier, the Chiefs to Rotorua, the Crusaders to Nelson and the Highlanders to Invercargill, all operating under revenue-share agreements.
NZR is expected to decide on Moana’s future before the end of the month.