Rather than building a sprawling bureaucracy, the Government has deliberately held back on budget and headcount. McClay is wary of an agency that spends “two or three years” hiring hundreds of people instead of closing deals.
Invest New Zealand’s core mandate is clear: focus on larger, transformational projects, not marginal deals that would occur anyway. The agency is targeting investments in the $100 million to $1 billion range, with scope to drop to around $20m if a project can scale quickly.
Energy, data centres, and the UAE connection
McClay considers the most immediate opportunities lie in renewable energy and associated infrastructure. He points to growing interest from sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, including the UAE, which has set global targets for new energy generation.
He is unapologetic about courting investment that pairs energy generation with data centres and AI infrastructure: “New Zealand needs more energy, he explains. “In many places around the world, they see the two together, so they will invest in the energy generation infrastructure, which gives the certainty — one for the country and two for the data centres.”
Questioned if there is a political risk that new generation will be built to power foreign‑owned data centres while households and industry face continued high electricity prices, McClay pushes back. He argues that additional generation expands supply for the entire grid, and that dedicated “AI-only” power is not realistic in New Zealand’s integrated system.
Picking winners
Already, the Active Investor Plus (AIP) visa has resulted in substantial capital flowing into funds rather than direct stakes. McClay is open to this, particularly in infrastructure, social housing, and the start‑up sector, but he draws a firm line against the Government picking winners.
“If we have a list of companies that are pre‑approved, it almost guarantees an endorsement,” he says. “It’s not the Government’s job to go out and endorse private sector investment into a private sector company.”
Invest New Zealand will not run its own funds. Instead, it will connect and catalyse where it can, while leaving due diligence and allocation decisions to professional managers.
Chasing the Singapore and Ireland benchmark
McClay readily concedes that New Zealand underperforms on foreign direct investment. The cabinet has asked Invest New Zealand to study Singapore and Ireland — both notable FDI magnets — and adapt what is relevant to a small, open economy outside the EU.
No formal FDI target has yet been set, but McClay signals he wants New Zealand to at least match the OECD average over time. That ambition, he argues, cannot sit with a single agency. It will require planning and consenting reform, particularly for renewable energy, to shorten painfully long project timelines:
“Even if we are the best country in the world, if it takes 10 years to get a consent, 10 years to build, that investment dollar is going somewhere else.”
In the first one to two years, McClay’s test is simple: closed deals that clearly would not have occurred without Invest New Zealand’s intervention, and measurable job creation in priority sectors.
Beyond that, success will be judged by higher FDI inflows, better quality capital, and a more sophisticated conversation between investors and government on regulatory barriers and investment settings.
McClay’s philosophy can be summed up as pro‑FDI but cautious about state activism: open the door, sharpen the pitch, and scale the pipeline — but stop short of the Government validating specific companies.
In a more fragmented and volatile world, McClay’s view is that New Zealand cannot afford to sit back: “If it’s good for New Zealand and good for New Zealanders, we should say yes to it. We will help it come here.”