But behind the bright blue lights at the National conference and the standing ovations for various ministers and policies – Erica Stanford and the new KiwiSaver initiatives got a roaring reception from members – there is a sense of gloom in some quarters.
However the party wants to spin it publicly, unless its polling can be drastically improved, there is a reckoning coming for National.
That could present itself in the form of losing a large number of MPs, including possibly some senior ones.
When the Herald tried to ask leader Christopher Luxon about whether he was concerned he could lose some senior MPs if the party’s polling didn’t improve, he outright dismissed the question.
“I don’t talk about polling,” the Prime Minister said from the comfort of standing in a safe seat and being automatically given the top list spot under National’s constitution.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon spoke at National’s party conference. Photo / Getty Images
National has been stuck around the 30% mark for months now, without any sign of improvement. Maybe that will change as it switches from governing to electioneering, but there is also no guarantee.
On Friday night, National issued two press releases announcing that Gerry Brownlee, the Speaker, and first-term MP Nancy Lu had secured list-only positions for the election. That means they won’t contest an electorate like most other party candidates.
These list-only positions aren’t just handed out willy-nilly. The candidates are often given rankings on the eventual list that reflect the desire by party leadership for them to enter Parliament.
The announcements came at the end of a day-long National Party caucus meeting hosted by Luxon at Premier House.
Alerting the media to the decisions before the conference began was important as party material handed around at the Lower Hutt Event Centre revealed the pair’s list-only positions. (The absence of National MP Andrew Bayly also confirmed he wouldn’t be standing again, as the Herald revealed on Saturday.)
But the announcement also brought the difficult position for some National MPs back into the spotlight.
Depending on how many electorates National wins – something that won’t be known until election night or even later – the party could have a limited number of list spots available to those candidates who don’t win their own seat.
Predicting electorate results is tricky and not an exact science, but typically the better a party does nationally, the more seats it picks up.
National is therefore likely to lose some, while Labour will win some back. How many is the question.
This puts those MPs who could require a list position to get back into Parliament in a nerve-wracking position.
Among those potentially at risk are Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Brownlee.
National MP Chris Bishop’s position isn’t secured. Photo / Jason Dorday
David Farrar, a National pollster and political commentator, has done some analysis on his Patreon website looking at who will and won’t return to Parliament, based on recent polling.
He has also made projections about what electorates it will win and lose using a methodology that considers the change in the party vote and electorate boundaries (but doesn’t account for particular quirks to individual races).
His current forecast is for National to receive just two list positions (some of the electorate races are very close, so this could change by election night).
Using National’s current rankings, this would see deputy Nicola Willis return, as well as Bishop, who is currently at number three. Sayonara to many backbenchers who are expected to lose their electorates.
Bishop holds the very marginal Hutt South electorate, having won it by just 1332 votes in 2023.
There is no certainty he will win it back – in fact, he told the Herald on Sunday that it was “arguably a Labour seat”. Without it, he will need the list.
You’d not normally expect to see someone of Bishop’s rank at risk.
Former Attorney-General and National MP Christopher Finlayson recently said on his podcast that when he was in office under Sir John Key, he didn’t even think about whether he would return to Parliament on the party list, as National was so dominant at the time.
Now is not then. Now, National, the main party of a first-term Government, is less popular than the main Opposition party.
Bishop told the Herald he didn’t focus too much on list rankings as there are “so many variables going on” between the party vote, how many electorates are won, wasted vote, split votes and more.
“I know there’s models out there and people doing estimates and things like that. I don’t get too focused on that, to be honest.”
He said people could “spend all day fixating on it and drive yourself demented”.
Bishop also wouldn’t say if he wanted to retain the third list spot, saying that was for National’s ranking committee.
“It’s a competitive process,” Bishop admitted.
National’s Gerry Brownlee has been Speaker this term. Photo / Mark Mitchell
It would be an incredible result if Bishop didn’t return. He’s one of the party’s highest-ranked ministers, who oversees some of the Government’s most important work streams across transport, housing, and resource management.
It would also be notable in that it has long been speculated – though also vehemently denied – that Bishop was behind the destabilisation of Luxon’s leadership earlier this year.
While Bishop is currently in third, there is a case – at least based on recent National history – for Brownlee getting a high position.
The 2017 election was the last in which National went to the ballots already in Government.
At the time, its Speaker was Sir David Carter. He was ranked third on the list, behind then Prime Minister Sir Bill English and deputy leader Paula Bennett. The party didn’t retain power, but Carter was re-elected thanks to the list.
Now let’s go back to 2014. Carter was Speaker and ranked third. Back to 2011? Sir Lockwood Smith, then the Speaker for National, was also ranked at number three.
A pattern is there. It’s not codified in the party’s constitution, but each time, the Speaker of the day was given the third list spot.
So could Brownlee find himself elevated to the third position for National this year?
On Sunday, he told the Herald he had no expectation he would be given that spot, suggesting that there were “different circumstances” under Key and English.
“We’ve got a different front bench. Those are matters for the party, not for individuals to start prescribing themselves.”
Brownlee said he was “happy to accept” the list-only spot.
If you consider Brownlee’s status as Speaker as well as one of the currently longest-serving MPs, it would be surprising for him to be given a position that left him vulnerable to falling out of Parliament.
Not only would that be a shock to the party, but it would also mean Brownlee wouldn’t be afforded the opportunity to give a valedictory speech.
Paul Goldsmith is unlikely to win Epsom. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Another in this potential danger zone is Goldsmith, who will loyally run again for Epsom but isn’t likely to defeat Act’s David Seymour.
Goldsmith told the Herald he was “very confident” he would get back on the list. Asked if he would push for a higher list ranking, he said that was for the party to decide.
“Every candidate wants to be as high as they can be … It’s the decision of the party to decide how they put the list together and I’ll just do my best.”
Lu would also struggle to return, even if she is given what would be considered a normally good list spot. She is unlikely to be ranked above ministers.
She is also an interesting player within the National Party. The MP is a very vocal supporter of Luxon and has an impressive set of relationships with Auckland communities.
In the press release on Friday announcing her list-only candidacy, she was explicit that she would be “campaigning with our ethnic communities to turn out the party vote for National”.
This is all, of course, theoretical and based on current polling.
Ask Luxon or anyone else in the party about its prospects and they’ll tell you National will improve its poll results over the coming months as the campaign kicks in and retain its talent.
That is possible. But barring any exceptional events, the party appears to be set to receive less support than in 2023.
Putting aside predictions about who may or may not return, or what electorate seats could be won, this exercise demonstrates the pressure that will be mounting on some senior National MPs.
Returning to Parliament on current polling isn’t a given, as it was for Finlayson in the halcyon days of Key and English.
With potentially only a couple of list spots in Parliament, the futures of many are on a knife edge.
MPs at risk of losing their seat are susceptible to questioning their party’s direction and its leadership.
If the party isn’t doing well enough for them to return, what action could they take to improve their stocks?
Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald’s Chief Political Reporter, based in the press gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.