The Verian poll had Opportunity within spitting distance of not only getting into Parliament, at 4.6%, but also within reach of holding the balance of power.
That has never been done before by a new party. When New Zealand First held the balance of power in 1996 in the first MMP election, with 13% of the vote, it had already been a small electoral force in Parliament in 1993.
The Verian poll had Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori ahead of the three coalition parties, National, Act and New Zealand First.
If The Opportunity Party is not exactly a bright new shiny thing, it has a bright new shiny leader, Qiulae Wong, and it is possible that the publicity of polls itself could nudge it towards the 5% threshold.
On the other hand, shortly before the 2014 election, Colin Craig’s Conservative Party made headlines when it polled exactly the same as Opportunity, 4.6%, in a Three News poll.
But it lost momentum in the last week of the campaign and fell short. (By the way, right-wing bloggers didn’t accuse mainstream media of “campaigning” for the Conservatives at the time, as some now are doing when it comes to stories about Opportunity).
Opportunity, but at what cost?
The Opportunity Party claims to be centrist, but its tax policy is decidedly left. For that reason, you can expect to hear a lot more from critics about its plan to charge an annual land tax at 1.75% to fund a universal benefit of up to $370 a week for most adults, and set income tax rates at 28%, 34% and 39%.
It’s not a small bill. If, for example, the value of a residential property’s land was $500,000, a 1.75% charge would amount to $8750 annually.
Wong, whose bio says she has a background in “human rights, disability inclusion, ethical fashion, climate and purpose-driven business”, has insisted this week that the party could go either way and that, unlike New Zealand First, it sits in the centre. NZ First leader Winston Peters has dubbed it the “Opportunity Cost” party.
The party was launched in 2016. It has previously been led by Gareth Morgan, Geoff Simmons, and Raf Manji, and was previously known as The Opportunities Party and Top.
Labour should be getting nervous
Labour was down five points in this week’s 1News-Verian poll, and leader Chris Hipkins’ popularity also took a hit. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Labour should be worried as it heads into its election year congress in Wellington this weekend. The most significant aspect of the Verian poll this week, besides the rise of Opportunity, was Labour’s five-point plunge. It’s not just the dive, but the fact that it took place after leader Chris Hipkins rolled out one of the party’s big cost-of-living policies – a cap of $20 a week on public transport costs in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. Hipkins’ own popularity fell by three points.
It is possible that the publicity blitz by Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Labour’s so-called $18 billion unpaid policy bill has resonated, or that the leaked discussion of 100 duck-sized horses has caught up with the party.
It may be difficult for the media to gauge the mood of Labour delegates, however. The congress is closed except for speeches by finance spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds and Hipkins.
Meanwhile, Act is holding a rally on Sunday in Auckland, where the replacement of deputy leader Brooke van Velden will be announced. There will be surprise if it is anyone other than minister Nicole McKee.
The rally is being organised by a former aide to prominent Canadian politician Pierre Poilievre, and Act insiders say it will have a different feel. It will be fast and high-energy, with the speakers on a stage in the middle of the crowd rather than delivering speeches from the front.
What was Simeon thinking?
A speech by National campaign chair Simeon Brown at last weekend’s conference is still reverberating over its effect on coalition harmony. His decision to describe National as the adults in the relationship and compare Act and New Zealand First to squabbling children has not gone down well with the “children”.
It was possibly all the more galling because, despite Brown’s meteoric rise in politics that I’ve written about this week, nobody in Parliament looks more like a schoolboy than him.
It was a patronising take on coalition politics. On the other hand, the current squabble between Act and New Zealand First about the Act-led reform of health and safety laws sort of proves the point.
Brown’s speech somewhat distracted from National’s big KiwiSaver policy announcement, making it compulsory for all workers and setting up accounts from birth with a $1500 gift.
The party has followed up with a substantial policy announcement today – a low-interest, 10-year loan scheme for ratepayers to install solar panels on their roofs. The “home energy fund” would be jointly owned by the central Government and participating councils, and would allow the loan to be repaid as a charge on rates bills or on the sale of the property.
Cross-party work for women
Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke (left) with National’s Minister for Women, Nicola Grigg.
Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke used her big social media profile to team up with Women’s Minister and National MP Nicola Grigg to promote the extension of the upper age of free breast screening from 69 to 74.
“Yes, we are from different political parties, but over the past year I’ve collaborated with female MPs from across Parliament on a range of issues, including breast cancer, online safety, AI harms, Te Tiriti o Waitangi and education,” Maipi-Clarke said.
She added it was in honour of her big cousin, Hinepuaawai, who died of breast cancer last year. The lower age limit for free screening is 45 years, and Maipi-Clarke says her goal is to lower it to 40. Good on you, Hana-Rāwhiti. You get the bouquet this week.
By the way
Speaker Gerry Brownlee last night hosted an event at Parliament to mark Press Gallery life member Richard Harman being made an Officer of the New Zealand Order of Merit for services to journalism and broadcasting. Harman, a former TVNZ political editor, has never lost his enthusiasm for covering politics and told a few old war stories, including one about a visit to Carrington psychiatric hospital with Mike Moore. Moore told those gathered that he had not been there since 1965, to which one of them asked: “What are you in for this time?”
Quote unquote
“The Greens won’t be happy until 100% of the land is state-owned, and we all know what that is called. We don’t want to take advice from the dancing tussocks over there … the fact is that the Greens like to touch grass, but only when it’s rolled” – Winston Peters even got a laugh from the Greens with his zingers in Question Time yesterday.
Micro quiz
Who has been appointed to undertake an inquiry into whether Immigration NZ misled its minister over the Biometric Capability Update project? (Answer at the bottom of this article.)
Brickbat
Goes to the Green Party for an $800 million mistake in its tax policy (although it received an apology from Infometrics for not catching it) – one of a series of recent embarrassing errors.
Bouquet
Goes to Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke for putting aside party differences to promote a good health policy move by the Government. More please.
This week’s top stories
Herald Poll of Polls: Coalition’s re-election odds slip; Opportunity nears 5% threshold
1News-Verian poll: Labour coalition ahead, Opportunity close to 5% in new poll
Solar policy: National proposes new fund offering loans for solar power uptake
Policy errors: Swarbrick says Green Party ‘rolling with punches’ as it issues another correction
Health & safety reforms: Peters vows Govt’s health and safety reforms will be ‘dead on arrival’
IT scandal: Probe to assess if MPs were purposely misled over failed immigration scheme
Opinion – Simeon Brown interview: Not so ‘cherubic’: How Luxon’s most focused minister became a power player – Audrey Young
Coalition tensions: National launches KiwiSaver policies as Brown compares NZ First, Act to children
Opinion – Nats’ conference: National may be playing happy, but senior MPs’ futures are at risk – Jamie Ensor
Policy leak: Greens’ tax plan accidentally released online hours before official launch
Conservation reforms: Minister pushes back on conservation land sell-off claim as a ‘myth’
Quiz answer: Michael Heron, KC, but Parliament’s privileges committee will also undertake an inquiry into whether officials misled the education and workforce committee.
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