Finishing in the top four gives teams the best chance of winning the premiership. Since the current finals format was introduced in 2012, every winner has come from the top four. Only the 2014 Bulldogs, who finished seventh, and the 2017 Cowboys, who finished eighth, have reached the grand final after qualifying from outside the top four.
The finals format – 1 v 4, 2 v 3, 5 v 8 and 6 v 7 – sends the winners of the first two games straight to the preliminary finals, where they will host a match for a place in the grand final. The losers get a second chance and will host the winners of the two sudden-death elimination finals.
The Warriors are in a strong position to keep their spot inside the top four. Since the start of last season, the Warriors have spent 36 of 45 weeks inside the NRL’s top four – more than any other club.
This year alone, they have occupied a top-four position at the end of every round bar round five.
Their run home starts with four straight games against teams in the bottom half of the standings, but it gets harder from there, with four of their final five games against sides inside the eight – a tough test before the finals.
The Warriors have a 3-4 record against current top-eight sides and a 7-1 record against teams outside the eight. However, they enter this final stretch having lost three of their last four and as one of the teams worst hit by injuries, so their depth will be tested.
To compensate, the Warriors have brought in middle forward Riley Price, son of former captain Steve Price, on a development contract, while also signing winger Luke Laulilii from the Wests Tigers.
Should the Warriors make the finals, it would be the third time in four years Webster has led them there.
The Warriors fell to their first defeat of the NRL season against the Wests Tigers. Photo / Photosport
Round 19: Wests Tigers
Away; Tigers currently 12th
Fresh off the bye, the Warriors should be favourites, although if they want to leave Campbelltown with two points, they will have to do it the hard way.
With the clash coming two days after the final State of Origin clash, it is unlikely Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell will play, although the Warriors should have James Fisher-Harris and Leka Halasima back.
The Tigers, meanwhile, are also down on troops, including influential captain Apisai Koroisau, but they should have Jarome Luai back in their side, as they will look to snap their three-game losing streak.
The Warriors will also be wary that Benji Marshall’s side have already beaten them this season, overcoming an early 10-point deficit to hand them their first loss of the campaign in March.
The Warriors’ last two matches at the venue against the Tigers have been decided by four points or less.
Our prediction: Warriors by six.
Elsewhere: The Dolphins host the Sharks with the winner to remain on the heels of the Warriors, while the Rabbitohs and Knights also square off in another top-eight showdown and the Sea Eagles and Cowboys play in what could be an intriguing clash.
Round 20: St George Illawarra Dragons
At home; Dragons currently 17th
The Dragons have managed two wins all season and have the worst attack and defence in the competition.
This should not be a contest, although to give the Dragons some credit, they have improved since they lost to the Warriors, with their impressive young forward pack leading the way.
The match will also give Luke Metcalf the chance to catch up with his new teammates.
When the two teams met earlier this season, the Warriors barely got out of first gear in a comfortable win. Expect more of the same this time.
Our prediction: Warriors by 13-plus.
Elsewhere: The Sharks and Knights clash in a key top-eight encounter, the Roosters and Storm meet in a blockbuster, and the Dolphins and Cowboys should provide plenty of intrigue in a Queensland derby. The Sharks and Rabbitohs also clash in a battle of sides fighting to stay in touch with the top four.
The Bulldogs beat the Warriors 32-12 in their last meeting. Photo / Photosport
Round 21: Canterbury Bulldogs
Away; Bulldogs currently 10th
Of all the games remaining, this is the one that carries the most mystery, largely because of the Bulldogs’ peculiar form in 2026.
They have been a long way from the side that boasted the best defensive record last season and have one of the NRL’s weakest attacks, but they are on the cusp of the top eight thanks to a three-game winning streak, albeit an unconvincing one.
The Warriors have lost their last two games to the Bulldogs in Sydney, but if there is a time to snap the streak, this is it.
This will be the sixth meeting between former Penrith assistants in Webster and Cameron Ciraldo, with the latter holding a 3-2 record.
Our prediction: Warriors by 1-12 in an unconvincing performance.
Elsewhere: The Knights and Roosters battle in what could determine who finishes inside the top four, while the Sharks and Sea Eagles also collide.
Round 22: Gold Coast Titans
Away; Titans currently 15th
Since the two sides met earlier this season, the Titans have improved significantly, beating the Broncos and even the Penrith Panthers, who were without their Origin stars, but something the Warriors have not managed to do.
There are signs of progress under Josh Hannay but they remain far from the finished product.
However, while the Warriors have won their last two meetings with the Titans, the Gold Coast side have proved tricky customers in the past.
Besides, any match on the Gold Coast is always a Warriors home game – sorry, Titans fans.
Our prediction: The “home” crowd helps the Warriors to a 1-12 win.
Elsewhere: The Cowboys hosting the Roosters should carry plenty of intrigue, while the Sharks and Rabbitohs play a crucial clash in the fight for spots in the bottom half of the eight.
The Panthers have won 11 of their last 12 against the Warriors. Photo / Photosport
Round 23: Penrith Panthers
Home; Panthers currently first
This is easily the biggest test of the Warriors’ run home: facing the league leaders, who have lost three times this season and will likely have a full squad to choose from.
The Warriors probably should have won their last meeting, where both sides were without their Origin stars, but couldn’t get the job done, failing to convert numerous attacking opportunities.
Considering the Panthers have won 11 of the past 12 meetings between the sides, the Warriors do have the chance to make a statement on the cusp of the finals, but expect the Panthers to be too classy.
Our prediction: Panthers win by four.
Elsewhere: All the other contenders are facing teams outside the top eight.
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos
Away; Broncos currently 16th
This will be the second meeting between the teams at Suncorp after the Warriors hosted the Broncos during Magic Round.
The two teams have faced contrasting seasons.
While the Warriors have been among the best teams this season, the defending-champion Broncos are plummeting towards unwanted history and are second to last.
They are on an eight-game losing streak and are on the cusp of making unwanted history by becoming the first reigning premiers – since the Tigers of 2005 (excluding the Storm of 2010 who were unable to compete for competition points after breaching the salary cap) – to miss the finals the following year.
Overall, it has been a season to forget for the Broncos, who have also been plagued by off-field incidents.
By the time the game rolls around, it is likely their season will be over.
The Warriors beat the Broncos at Magic Round, so there is no reason they cannot do it again.
Our prediction: Warriors 13-plus.
Elsewhere: The Panthers host the Roosters in a blockbuster while the Sea Eagles and Dolphins collide.
Warriors five-eighth Chanel Harris-Tavita. Photo / Photosport
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs
Away; Rabbitohs currently eighth
How this game plays out will depend on which players are fit for either side.
Both sides have been severely impacted by injuries over the past two seasons but have defied the odds to remain in the finals mix.
The Rabbitohs have been much improved this season, and most of their injured players should be fit by the time this game rolls around. However, it is hard to trust that things will stay that way because of their recent track record.
The Warriors have won the last two meetings between the sides.
Our prediction: Warriors win 1-12 if the Rabbitohs’ injury issues continue.
Elsewhere: A third straight big test for the Panthers, as they travel to Melbourne while the Knights and Sea Eagles do battle. The Roosters host the Tigers, which will be intriguing should Marshall’s side remain in finals contention.
Round 26: Newcastle Knights
Home; Knights currently fourth
While the Warriors crushed the Knights earlier this season, that result should be taken with a grain of salt because Newcastle were without several key spine players.
They are vastly improved this season and remain firmly in the mix for a top-four finish, making this a crucial clash.
The Warriors have won five of their last six meetings, while the Knights haven’t won in Auckland since 2019, although they’ve only visited twice since then.
Our prediction: Warriors sneak home 1-12.
Elsewhere: The Broncos and Storm meet in a grand final rematch, although it is unlikely both teams will still be in finals contention. The other eye-catching game is the Roosters hosting the Dolphins.
James Fisher-Harris scored the fastest try in NRL history when the Warriors last played the Sea Eagles. Photo / Photosport
Round 27 Manly Sea Eagles
Home; Sea Eagles currently sixth
It has been difficult to gauge the Sea Eagles this season. They got off to a poor start but have found a new lease of life since Kieran Foran became head coach.
If there is one thing to note about the Sea Eagles, it is that they have struggled under pressure late in matches, similar to the Warriors.
The Sea Eagles have won three of their last four meetings, but also haven’t won in Auckland since 2019, although the teams did draw in 2024.
How this game plays out will depend on whether either side has locked in their position on the ladder. If they cannot improve their standing, there is a chance players are rested, but do not expect Webster to do that.
Our prediction: Warriors win 1-12, although I say this without confidence.
Elsewhere: The Sydney derby between the Rabbitohs and Roosters will provide plenty of highlights, while the Sharks and Storm battle.
Verdict on regular-season prospects
If things go well, the Warriors could realistically win eight of their nine remaining matches.
That would be close to a best-case scenario and should be enough to secure the coveted top-two spot, but sport has a way of throwing up curveballs.
But so much hinges on whether players can stay fit, with any further serious injuries risking a repeat of last season.
The biggest competition for the Warriors right now comes from the Roosters, Knights and Dolphins.
The Roosters and Knights are tied with the Warriors on 26 points, although the latter is still yet to have their final bye which comes in round 27, and the Dolphins are a further two points back
In terms of difficulty, the Dolphins’ schedule is on par with the Warriors.
They have been the NRL’s most in-form team in recent weeks, although their eight-game win streak was snapped by the Knights over the weekend.
Their star halfback Isaiya Katoa is also sidelined for an extended period with a wrist injury and they have lost five of six games he has missed in his career.
The Knights have the toughest run, with five of their games coming against sides currently in the eight, while the Roosters’ schedule is full of games against teams on the cusp – or in – a finals position.
The Warriors must capitalise on their favourable run over the next month. One challenge is that, in their most recent outing, the Warriors were missing six first-choice players – seven if you include Rocco Berry – although some reinforcements should return for the run home.
With no byes left, the Warriors could end up playing 13 straight games, making a top-two berth even more valuable, as a week-one win would earn them a break before the preliminary finals.
If they can manage that, the path to a grand final will run through Auckland, where the Warriors should have enough quality to defend their turf.
It might be dangerous to get hopes up, but if they can avoid losing any more key players, things are looking positive.
Predicted top eight: 1.) Panthers, 48 points; 2.) Warriors, 42 points; 3.) Roosters, 42 points; 4.) Knights, 40 points; 5.) Sharks, 40 points; 6.) Dolphins 38 points; 7.) Cowboys 34 points; 8.) Storm, 30 points.
Ben Francis is an Auckland-based reporter for the New Zealand Herald who covers breaking sports news.