Bishop said this morning, “fuel excise duty has fallen in real terms by 21 per cent since 2020 when it was last increased, while construction costs have risen significantly over the same period, with the recent conflict in the Middle East contributing to that challenge”.
The sequencing of projects unveiled by Bishop provides little detail about when New Zealanders can expect to see construction begin on several Rons including the Northland Corridor – Te Hana to Whangārei (excluding Alternative to Brynderwyn Hills), the East-West Link, and SH6 Hope Bypass Stage 2.
The investment case for these roads has been completed, but no timeframe has been given for when they may progress further.
An infographic provided by the Government says their “progression is subject to funding availability”, like various other listed projects.
Phase one of the Government’s Major Transport Projects Pipeline. Photo / NZTA
Phase 2 and 3 of the Government’s Major Transport Projects Pipeline. Photo / NZTA
Those Rons, as well as the Mill Road – Alfriston to Drury and Petone to Grenada projects, have been placed on a slow track as part of the phased pipeline.
“The pipeline shows why a phased approach to delivering the Roads of National Significance is important,” said Bishop.
“As I’ve said many times, not all projects can start immediately. It takes time to get projects ready for construction, with route protection (designations and consenting), detailed design, and property acquisition all needing to be completed before main construction works can begin.”
Speaking to media this morning, Bishop argued the public understood that not all roads could be built at once and phasing was necessary.
However, he accepted the National Party’s Rons promises at the 2023 election were “very ambitious”.
Bishop denied the phasing was a backdown, pointing to challenging economic headwinds from the United States imposing widespread tariffs and the flow-on effects from the Iran war.
He reiterated the Government’s commitment to the Rons programme, while noting the 2024 total cost estimate of $56b was unlikely to be accurate now.
Labour’s transport spokesman Tangi Utikere said the pipeline was a “wishlist” given that funding hadn’t been tagged to future projects.
“National promised communities these projects would be delivered. Now it’s quietly admitting many have no funding to get built,” he said in a statement.
“They over-promised, under-budgeted and are now walking back the certainty they sold at the election.”
Utikere said that while the construction industry wanted certainty with a “genuine pipeline of work”, National’s plan came with many different “caveats, phases, and projects that may or may not happen”.
What is in each phase?
The Government has broken the transport projects up into three phases, the first being those currently under construction and procurement.
“The Ōtaki to north of Levin Road of National Significance, the Hawke’s Bay Expressway, Takitimu North Link Stage 1, and SH29 Tauriko West (Omanawa Bridge) are all under construction,” said Bishop.
“The first stage of the Northland Expressway is in the final stages of procurement and due to start construction before the end of the year, while procurement is also underway for the Cambridge to Piarere Road of National Significance.
“Cambridge to Piarere will extend the Waikato Expressway, with construction of Stage 1 due to start in early 2027 and Stage 2 later in 2027.”
Bishop highlighted that other regional projects including the Melling Interchange, Brougham Street and the second Ashburton Bridge, are also underway.
Phase two are those projects that are in preparation for construction and route protection.
Bishop said provisional consent had been granted “for the Belfast to Pegasus Road of National Significance and early works are underway.
“Takitimu North Link (Stage 2) also recently received consent through the Fast Track Approvals Act.
“NZTA will continue to progress planning work for Mill Road (Stage One), the Northwest Busway (Stages 1B and 2), and the Hope Bypass (Stage 1) with intersection improvements prioritised at Lower Queen St.
“As funding becomes available, these projects can progress to construction.
“NZTA will also progress route protection for the SH1 Wellington Improvements project, the Brynderwyns project as part of the Northland Expressway, SH29 Tauriko (Wider Scope), and Northwest Busway Stage 3.
“The Northwest Alternative State Highway and Hamilton Southern Links are already designated.”
Then there are those in phase three – or “contuining more slowly”.
“NZTA will continue work on the Hope Bypass Stage 2, Sections 2 and 3 of the Northland Expressway (excluding the Brynderwyns), Auckland’s East West Link, Mill Road (Alfriston to Drury), and Petone to Grenada,” said Bishop.
“Work on these projects will progress at a slower pace than those in Phase Two, with some projects continuing preparation for future route protection.”
Why the new pipeline was needed
A re-sequencing of projects has not come out of the blue, as the Herald has been reporting on for months.
Bishop in November delivered a significant speech in which he said the Government faced “challenges” in delivering “big new roading projects”, hinting that “hard choices lie ahead” and that many roads “won’t be starting for many years”.
The Rons programme was estimated at the time to cost $56 billion and described in an MoT paper as the “most complex and expensive infrastructure programme in New Zealand’s recent history”.
During the 2023 election campaign, National promised 13 new Rons. The Government has expanded this to 17, including SH1 Whangārei to Port Marsden, the East-West Link in Auckland, Hamilton Southern Links, Ōtaki to north of Levin, the SH1 Second Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve upgrades, and the Hope Bypass.
The party said work would begin on the 13 roads within one to 10 years of taking office. Investment cases have been endorsed by the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) board for all of them, while construction is underway on some, such as Takitimu North Link Stage 1.
Transport Minister Chris Bishop has been discussing a new pipeline for many months. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Bishop said delivering all the roads over the next 20 years would cost $56b if funded entirely by road user charges and petrol taxes, these would need to go up by 70%, equivalent to a 49c a litre increase in fuel tax.
“To be clear, this 49 cent per litre increase would only allow the RoNS to be delivered. It would not provide any funding for other major transport projects, such as the Second Waitematā Harbour Crossing or the North West Busway,” Bishop said.
He said the Government was “committed to the Roads of National Significance but delivering them all tomorrow is not realistic”.
As the Herald reported in January, the Ministry of Transport (MoT) last year estimated that more than a “quarter of a trillion dollars” was expected to be invested over the next two decades by the Crown on land transport if all its proposed projects came to fruition.
That would be more than half the size of New Zealand’s current gross domestic product (GDP) and larger than the value of the country’s state highway assets, worth about $85.3 billion in 2024.
Bishop’s office sought advice on the Rons programme, including expenditure, revenue, phasing, governance and options to support its delivery.
He was told by his ministry in August that he needed to prioritise projects, including not just the Rons, but all transport capital projects.
Officials said the “relative value of the Rons programme will need to be assessed against other major capital transport investments planned” and “the ministry recommends all proposed projects and programmes be considered and prioritised through the development” of the general policy statement on land transport next year.
The benefit-to-cost ratio for the Rons were “medium to low”, the ministry said.
Other transport costs highlighted included $163b to be spent over the next 20 years from the National Land Transport Fund (NTLF) towards repaying debt, maintaining existing service levels and delivering standard improvements. Other major transport projects were also planned, including the second Waitematā Harbour crossing.
In the 2026 Budget, Bishop announced the Cambridge to Piarere Road Ron would receive $1.773b. It has a benefit-cost ration of 2.7 to 3.1, he said.
“Our Roads of National Significance programme is about backing economic growth by improving the roads that carry people, freight and business around the country.”