Labour supported the enabling legislation because that access matters to exporters, workers and their regions. This is progress, and we won’t pretend otherwise.
But businesses would be wise to go in with their eyes open. The $33 billion investment target is, to put it charitably, ambitious.
India has signalled it will enforce a clawback if that target is missed over 15 years, meaning access gains in apples, honey and kiwifruit could be unilaterally reversed. An unusual and concerning precedent, one that reflects a negotiation treated as an election promise rather than the national interest.
Christopher Luxon’s 2023 debate promise to deliver an FTA created a political deadline at odds with the patience these agreements require. The UK took more than three years. Rushing to save face rarely delivers the best outcome, and dairy, our single biggest export, gained very little.
This is where Labour’s approach differs. A trade deal has to deliver for all New Zealanders, not just for the announcement. Agreements must lift wages and regions, protect our right to regulate, hold the line on labour and environmental standards, and keep faith with the clean, high-value brand our exporters trade on.
None of this diminishes the opportunity. India is the world’s most populous country and one of its fastest-growing economies, its middle class is hungry for the safe, high-quality food we produce.
But the greatest growth lies beyond primary exports: education, agritech, environmental and climate technology, science, and the living bridge of New Zealand’s Indian community.
In government, Labour would invest in these deliberately: research and education partnerships, climate-tech and agritech collaboration where we lead, consistent ministerial engagement over deadline-driven set pieces, and a diaspora treated as partners, not a line in a speech.
The Government could start by clearing up the mixed signals from within the coalition over the immigration commitments in this deal. Contradictory accounts from ministers weeks before Prime Minister Modi arrives do nothing for the trust this relationship depends on, and need resolving plainly, before the visit rather than after.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit deserves to be treated as the continuation of a long diplomatic effort, not its conclusion.
Labour laid the groundwork. The FTA has opened some doors. What happens next depends on whether both sides approach this relationship with the patience and seriousness it demands. That is the work Labour is committed to, and the work that finally turns potential into product on ships.