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Intuitive Machines (LUNR) drew fresh attention after NASA awarded the company a firm-fixed-price contract valued at up to US$148.3 million for a production-line-qualified Nova-C lunar lander.
See our latest analysis for Intuitive Machines.
The contract news arrives after a weak run for Intuitive Machines’ share price, with the stock down 42.76% on a 30 day share price return basis and 22.53% over 90 days, even though its 1 year total shareholder return of 56.72% and 3 year total shareholder return of 92.75% point to strong longer term gains.
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Bulls may highlight fresh NASA work and long-term share gains, while bears may focus on recent index exits and ongoing losses. As you weigh the numbers, how does Intuitive Machines’ current valuation and US$17.02 price influence your view?
Most Popular Narrative: 26% Undervalued
Based on the most followed narrative for Intuitive Machines, a fair value of $23 sits above the last close at $17.02, which frames the stock as materially discounted on that view.
While LUNR’s 63.72% growth profile is fundamentally sound, the market is currently pricing in a flawless execution of every lunar mission. Considering the $15M in recent insider selling within the $23 to $25 range and the high 1.4 beta volatility, we view $23.21 as the objective “Going Concern” value. This provides a necessary buffer for investors against the inherent execution risks of the lunar economy.
Curious how a loss making space contractor still lands a higher fair value than today’s price? The narrative, according to sorkdhkddlek, leans heavily on aggressive revenue scaling, a margin shift toward data services, and a richer earnings profile a few years out. If you want to see how those moving parts combine into that $23 fair value, the full narrative spells out the underlying math.
Result: Fair Value of $23 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, Intuitive Machines still faces clear pressure points, including its current net loss of US$109.916 million and its reliance on projected high growth and margin expansion to support that US$23 fair value story.
Find out about the key risks to this Intuitive Machines narrative.
Another View: Our DCF Model Sees Much Deeper Value
The user narrative relies on revenue multiples to argue Intuitive Machines is 26% undervalued at $23. Our DCF model, however, indicates a larger discount, with an estimated value of $117.18 per share versus the $17.02 price. This raises a sharper question about how much risk is really being priced in.
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
LUNR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026 Next Steps
Conflicted by the mix of optimism and concern around Intuitive Machines? Take a closer look at the numbers, weigh the trade offs, and check the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include LUNR.
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