This summer has not exactly been smooth going for franchise movies. DC’s Supergirl has already had a rough start at the domestic box office, and Moana’s live-action reboot is entering theaters under closer scrutiny than Disney would probably like. Now, though, the early tracking for Sony and Marvel’s next Spider-Man film looks more promising. If those numbers hold, Spider-Man could once again show Hollywood he remains one of the safer bets in a superhero market that has gotten far less predictable.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day hits theaters Jul. 31, and Boxoffice Pro currently projects a $230-million to $250-million domestic opening weekend. To put that in perspective, only nine films have ever opened above $200 million domestically, including Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens (via Box Office Mojo).
Should the forecast hold, it would be the second-biggest debut in the franchise’s history, trailing only 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, which opened to $260.1 million. That film’s launch remains the second-largest domestic opening ever recorded, behind the $357.1 million all-time mark set by Avengers: Endgame in 2019.
It also helps that the wider box office has not produced many obvious breakout wins lately, which makes any credible mega-opening forecast feel a bit more notable. Toy Story 5 delivered a very healthy $159,677,837 domestic opening — huge on its own terms.
But Marvel’s recent run has been a little less consistent than it once was. Deadpool & Wolverine opened to a massive $211.4 million domestically in July 2024. Other titles have landed at a lower level. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opened to $106.1 million in February 2023, while The Marvels started with $46.1 million in November 2023.
Which is partly why the tracking on Brand New Day is worth paying attention to. Still, tracking this far out is not very precise, and superhero films in particular have a recent habit of opening below their loftiest estimates. No Way Home benefited from a once-in-a-generation hook, bringing three generations of Spider-Man actors together in a single film, and that kind of pull is hard to replicate.
On a more straightforward premise, Brand New Day reaching those same heights may be a lot to ask. But even if Brand New Day lands near the low end of that range, it would still be a welcome late-summer lift for theaters heading into August, and it would give Hollywood a clearer sense of what audiences are choosing to pass on.
Release Date
July 31, 2026
Runtime
150 Minutes
Director
Destin Daniel Cretton