Fifa World Cup 2026 semi-finals: Spain, France, Argentina, England ranked

4. England

There is a rough pattern emerging at this World Cup for England, provided you have a fairly elastic definition of good and bad. Each capable performance (Croatia, Panama, Mexico) has been followed by a slog (Ghana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Norway). Optimistically what will follow is another rise to an occasion against one of the country’s fiercest rivals.

More cautiously, you could say that England have yet to deliver a full 90-minute performance. There was a great half against Croatia, a quickfire blitz against Mexico followed by a stirring defensive effort and Panama was merely a team doing what was expected. There has also been Jude Bellingham and, while he remains on the pitch, England have a chance against anyone.

Jordan Pickford may be one to watch particularly closely on Thursday (NZT). There were moments of concerning erraticism against Norway and you sense he is building towards one almighty rick at some point. The manager, though, is proving an asset. Thomas Tuchel’s substitutions and mid-game tweaks have impressed and, against Argentina, we may see the long-heralded “perform better against more attacking teams” theory played out.

As it stands, England have the least possession and successful passes of every team left as well as comfortably the leakiest defence. Argentina have also conceded six goals, but England have faced 65 shots to their 50, both significantly higher than Spain and France. Tuchel’s team look stronger than Argentina player-by-player, but are mild underdogs based on their respective quarter-final performances. Regardless of what happens in the semi, their tournament can be classed a success.

England’s midfielder Jude Bellingham celebrates after scoring against Norway. Photo / AFP

3. Argentina

A quieter evening for Lionel Messi against Switzerland with just one assisted goal, Alexis Mac Allister scoring from his corner in a 3-1 victory. The quarter-final was not a bad time for Julián Álvarez to re-establish himself as plan B for his country, with a wonderful long-range curling shot effectively sealing the game before Lautaro Martínez added some late gloss.

There was another refereeing decision in Argentina’s favour when Breel Embolo was sent off. Until then, Switzerland had shaded the match and England will take encouragement from a lesser side than them giving the champions a run for their money. You could easily imagine Dan Ndoye’s equaliser from a tight angle being scored by Bellingham or Harry Kane.

They will have to get past Lisandro Martínez, who was responsible for two excellent moments of last-ditch defending when Switzerland looked to be through on goal. Switzerland also showed how Messi could be managed, packing the zone in front of the penalty area to force Argentina’s captain deeper and wider.

Set-pieces look dangerous, but there is further hope for England on examining the expected goals (xG) stats. Rash to read too much into those on a game-by-game basis, but Argentina have scored a tournament-leading 17 goals from an xG total of 12.8. At some point those numbers tend to become closer together, as few teams outstrip their xG for long. A superior defence to England gives them a slight edge.

Aregentina’s Julian Alvarez celebrates after scoring his team’s second goal against Switzerland. Photo / AFP

2. Spain

It has not been a tournament to capture hearts and minds for Spain. There were signs of a more exciting future from an electric young team at Euro 2024, but this is a team built primarily on fearsome defence.

It was finally breached for the first time by Belgium, but the stats remain highly impressive. Just seven shots on target have been conceded in their six games so far, and their xG against stat is 1.84 for the entire tournament. The next lowest is Argentina with 3.44.

Mikel Merino is becoming their get-out-of-jail-free card, although it helps when you are presented with a disastrous spilt shot from the opposing goalkeeper. Senne Lammens may need therapy.

Improvement from the Belgium game is required against France, but it would be unwise to underestimate a team who are still yet to lose a competitive game in four years since Luis de la Fuente took the job. Will probably need an almighty effort and smash-and-grab approach in their semi, but there is no better team in this tournament for the job.

Usually you would expect that to mean surrendering possession, but Spain may look to frustrate France with keep-ball. Their 66.2% possession average is more than six percentage points higher than Argentina in second.

Spanish coach Luis De La Fuente speaks with his players during a hydration break. Photo / Getty Images

1. France

Another test passed against Morocco and further brilliance from Kylian Mbappé. Morocco faltered slightly when faced with surely the toughest assignment in international football, but who can blame them? Their approach against Brazil was to demonstrate immediately they were not afraid. That would have been cavalier against the best collection of attacking talent at the tournament.

Nothing seems to faze Mbappé. A missed penalty? No bother, he will shrug it off and open the scoring with a sublime finish from seemingly nothing (see below). It was dismissed as airily as Paraguay’s repeated attempts to send him to hospital. His brilliance is becoming so routine it would now be surprising if he went a game without scoring a decisive goal.

There is still the lingering sense that their tournament peaked with the 3-0 masterclass against Sweden and some signs the dizzying pace of their attacking combinations was waning against Morocco. That need not matter with the game-turning abilities of Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué, all of whom are capable of undoing a side in seconds.

Spain look like the team most likely to give their defence the thorough examination it has not yet encountered at this tournament. Win against them on Tuesday and the final might prove an easier game.

France’s forward Kylian Mbappe celebrates scoring his team’s second goal against Iraq. Photo / AFP

– Daily Telegraph UK

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