Henry is the super candidate in an election campaign already stacked with recognisable names. Taine Randall. Michael Laws. Stuart Nash.
What we’re about to discover is whether a super candidate can single-handedly lift a party’s vote.
Act has been flatlining in the polls lately, partly because it’s conceded its shake-up-Wellington territory to New Zealand First. It hasn’t announced any headlining policies lately.
If there is a sudden lift in polling, it may be down to Henry. If he pops up in the preferred Prime Minister polling, then it’s even more likely.
Obviously, Henry is not without risk for Act. But if you’re fixated on the (strong) chance that he says something offensive, you’re worried about the wrong thing.
Voters expect him to say something outrageous. He’s been doing it for decades. When he does – not if – it will probably go down like a Donald Trump controversy.
Paul Henry is a new candidate for the Act Party. Photo / Sylvie Whinray
Henry’s supporters will ignore it because he’s a bit naughty. He won’t lose their support. His critics will blow up because they had a gutsful years ago. He never had their support so it doesn’t matter. If anything, opponents blowing up will help him because it will give him what he’s joined Act for: media attention.
Henry’s greatest risk is actually that he gets bored and bails out. He’s got form here. He walked away from a TV career that was still on the rise because he didn’t want to spend all his remaining summers working.
He doesn’t need the money. He’s incredibly wealthy.
Which means he also doesn’t have to stick it out in politics if he can’t be bothered anymore. If the workload is greater than he expects. If Wellington is as dull for him as I suspect it will be, if the hand-wringing, lanyard-wearing officials are as punishing as everyone finds them, if negotiating with the career politicians in NZ First and National gets boring, if jealousy within Act is a problem, he might just walk away
Because you know what’s better than a lonely apartment in a grey city an hour’s flight away from home? A mansion in Remuera. A holiday home in Palm Springs. A vacation in Hawaii. Literally, Henry’s actual life is better.
Which may be why he couldn’t quite decide if he’ll be giving Parliament three years or six years.
If Henry leaves at the earlier mark – or maybe even earlier than that – it will leave a lot of very disappointed Act and centre-right voters who are frothing right now for what Henry’s entry into politics means.
They’re right to be as excited as they are. The media will be hyper focused on Act’s new showman and all the entertainment he will bring from now to election day.
But centre-right voters have to remember, Henry’s appeal is that he is not a career politician. He says things career politicians don’t. He will create excitement career politicians don’t.
But it also means that at some point he will go back to his politics-free life again. My suspicion is it may be sooner than his party or his voters will want.
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