Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Update: Heartland Bank raised its reverse mortgage rate by +24 bps today to 7.99%. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SURGING EXPORTS, NO PROGRESS
June was a strong export month with values rising 24.8% from the same month a year ago. Unfortunately most of this was spent on imports, especially electric vehicles which drove imports up +27.6% from year-ago levels. That meant only a +$29 mln trade surplus in June, less than the +$158 mln a year ago, and the +577 mln two years ago.

MORE DETAIL ON EXPORTS & IMPORTS
Export growth to our usual top five destinations were all strong; China (+24%), Australia +(18%), the USA (+43%), Japan (+19%) and Korea (+38%). But very strong growth to Indonesia (+105%), Taiwan (+41%) and Malaysia (+43%) are also worth a mention. Import activity was more mixed and focused on car-buying from countries strong in EVs. But this was largely overshadowed by oil purchases with price rather than volume playing the dominant role. Of note though is the -7% retreat in buying from the USA.

PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE
June’s housing market suggested many vendors are becoming more realistic on price which could help get their property sold. The housing market pendulum swung further in buyers’ favour in June. See the report here.

SUBSIDING INDUSTRY TO OFFSET CARBON COST
The Government has stumped up $60 mln to support Golden Bay Cement domestic cement manufacturing in Whangarei after owner Fletcher Building threatened to close it and import its requirements. By the way, Holcim had closed its Westport facility in 2016 and has since imported all its NZ requirements, giving it a cost saving that pressured the Fletcher operation. This decision throws into the spotlight that local manufacturing includes the cost of carbon, but imports do not. International cement production seeks out jurisdictions that don’t apply carbon costs.

NZX50 LITTLE CHANGED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1% so far today, with a -0.3% weekly retreat. It is up +0.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.6% so far today. Fletcher Building, SkyCity casino, Spark and Chorus gain as the NZX50 slips; Investore Property, Oceania, Vulcan Steel and Ryman lead the decliners.

FOOD-FOR-FUEL DEAL NOW IN FORCE
The deal between New Zealand and Singapore on essential supplies is now in force following a ceremony in Auckland on Saturday, 18 July 2026. The Agreement on Trade in Essential Supplies (AOTES) was signed earlier in Singapore. Under this deal Singapore guarantees to supply New Zealand with fuel, medicines, and chemicals. In return, New Zealand guarantees to supply Singapore with food.

RATES ON HOLD IN CHINA
The People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a 14th straight month in July, as widely expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, was held at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, a reference rate for mortgages, remained at 3.5%.

HOUSING MARKET CORRECTION
In Australia, the latest weekend’s residential auction activity was low, possibly back to levels they had in 2018. They are finally having the housing market correction necessary to address their affordability problems.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates will likely have resumed theur upward track today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.88% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from this morning at 4.97%. The China 10 year bond rate up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is unchanged at 2.71% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.73%, up +5 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Friday rate unchanged at 4.65%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps at 4.57%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has dipped to start the week, now up down -0.2% so far. But the ASX200 is up +0.2%. Tokyo has opened down another -4.0%. Hong Kong is up +1.8% and Shanghai is up +1.6% at its open today on ‘home team’ buying. Singapore is down -0.1% at its open. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500 will open up +0.6%.

OIL PRICES RISE AGAIN
American oil prices are up +US$1.50 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now just on US$84/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$90/bbl..

CARBON PRICE HOLD
There have been few trades so far today but the price has moved very slightly to $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$4/oz from this morning, now at US$4021/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just over US$57/oz but still near its lowest since November 2025.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from this morning, now just on 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.4 and up +20 bps from this where we started this morning, aided by an outsized rise again the struggling yen.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,729 and up +0.3% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 0.6%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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