Attrition is inevitable and, come the next half of the Nations Championship in November, should the All Blacks want to do what many of the northern teams have done (rest some senior players), it will be optimum if replacements come from the superheated forge of this tour as much as possible.
Out of the running are former skipper Scott Barrett, prop Tamaiti Williams, wing Caleb Tangitau and hybrid midfielder-wing-flanker Leicester Fainga’anuku. Rennie says the selectors have already chosen the squads for the first four matches in South Africa, an interesting concept given the likelihood of changes, forced or otherwise.
With all that in mind, how might this 44-strong squad be configured? Some clear delineation between the midweek and test teams seems likely, with some in the midweek squad incentivised to demonstrate how they deserve promotion. Example: flanker Simon Parker – not used at all in the first three tests of the year – is likely to be a midweeker on this tour.
If we assume all the current 34-man squad will be selected, there’s a case for two immediate additions taking it up to 36 – Hurricanes loose forward Du’Plessis Kirifi and Highlanders lock Fabian Holland, returning from injury. Kirifi was squeezed out of the year’s first squad, but his grit and ball-burgling will be important in South Africa.
Crusaders lock Jamie Hannah made a good debut for the All Blacks against France and could be included, especially if the All Blacks continue with their promising experiment of Tupou Vaa’i in the problem No 6 position. That leaves room for seven more, including one or two new players.
Fabian Holland is on track to return for the All Blacks tour to South Africa. Photo / SmartFrame
A fourth hooker seems certain, especially with Codie Taylor’s injury, possibly two more props, one more loose forward, a fourth halfback, at least one more midfielder and outside back.
At hooker, George Bell and Brodie McAlister seem top contenders, while Crusaders halfback Noah Hotham, left out of Rennie’s initial squad, may graduate now. The midfielder could be the Highlanders’ Timoci Tavatavanawai, seemingly ideal for the grind of the midweek matches, Rieko Ioane or Chiefs centre Daniel Rona.
Left-out loosehead prop Ollie Norris may force his way back in, though there could be room for a tyro prop – like the Hurricanes’ Siale Lauaki and the Chiefs’ Benet Kumeroa, both members of last year’s All Blacks XV squad that toured Europe. Both play either side and New Zealand have a thin population of loosehead options at present.
The most interesting possibilities hinge round another outside back and an extra loose forward – maybe to swell blindside flanker stocks as Shannon Frizell’s return from Japan means he is not eligible for selection until November and Samipeni Finau may be lost to the All Blacks now.
There are experienced loose forward options in the Crusaders trio of Christian Lio-Willie, Dom Gardiner and Ethan Blackadder but also a couple of rising stars in the Blues’ Torian Barnes and Malachi Wrampling. The latter seems the best bet for a surprise to me – Wrampling plays with his blood just below boiling point and has the physical approach Rennie admires, with decent ball skills. He carries well from No 8, as well as being no stranger to blindside.
There may be no need for another player who can fill in at fullback – the current squad has six who can do so already (Will Jordan, Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett, Jordie Barrett, Ruben Love and Josh Moorby). A specialist wing seems most likely, especially as Fehi Fineanganofo’s availability for the end-of-year tour is not yet known.
Emoni Narawa is an obvious possibility, though he had little game time during Super Rugby Pacific. A roughie could be Chiefs teammate and winger-fullback Isaac Hutchinson, impressive when given an opportunity through injuries in Super Rugby. The Crusaders’ Chay Fihaki is a chance, while Chiefs’ teammate Kyren Taumoefolau will only be All Blacks-eligible by November.
Dave Rennie’s squad could be boosted by Richie Mo’unga if there is an injury in South Africa. Photos / Photosport
If you are wondering why there is no fourth first five-eighths mentioned here, particularly with McKenzie currently in residence at fullback, it’s the Richie Mo’unga factor. The agreement with New Zealand Rugby is that Mo’unga will not be available for the tour of South Africa – but can be imported as an injury replacement.
No need for any more first five-eighths, then. Rennie will name his South African squad on Monday, July 27, with NPC form not playing a role in selection (barring accidents) as it begins on July 30.
Paul Lewis writes about rugby, cricket, league, football, yachting, golf, the Olympics and Commonwealth Games.