Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Update: The Co-operative Bank has now matched BNZ with a 4.49% one year rate.  All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
General Finance reduced rates today. Update: the Co-op Bank will be reducing almost all its term deposit rates tomorrow.  All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

ELEVEN YEAR HIGH
The mountain of housing stock for sale continues to get bigger. It was still a buyer’s market in September. The number of homes for sale is at an 11 year high leaving buyers in charge as the spring market gets underway.

RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS STOP FALLING
Residential building consents rose in August year, but non-residential consents were not so hot. Just over 34,000 new homes were consented in the year to August, up +1.3% compared to previous 12 months.

STARVING IN AUCKLAND
Non-residential consents in August featured a worrying decline in Auckland where they are now running at a ten year low.

NON-PERFORMING LOANS REDUCE
Mortgage pain is diminishing. The latest Reserve Bank figures show that the amount of non-performing housing loans dropped by -$88 mln in August following a -$55 mln fall in July – suggesting that the reductions in mortgage interest rates are having a positive impact.

MORE CARS SOLD, BUT ‘NEW’ NOW DOMINATES
There was a surge in new car sales to 10,362 in September, the best for a September month since 2022. But used imports fell to a level not seen since 2012. For new car sales, the NEV share is level at about 50%, while the EV share is closer to 10% which is at the low end since we started tracking this ratio in 2017.

NZX50 FIRMER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% net in its Tuesday session so far, after a slowish start. It is up +1.1% over the past five working days. But it is up +2.0% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.4% today so far. Meridian, Serko, a2 Milk and Mercury are all rising but Oceania, Fletchers, Auckland Airport, and Investore are all falling.

LOW BUT LITTLE-CHANGED
There was another Pulse dairy auction overnight. And that brought marginally weaker prices for both SMP and WMP, down a bit less than -0.5% in USD terms. In fact these prices are now at their lowest level of 2025. But because the NZD is falling, the prices achieved actually rose about the same amount in local currency.

LGFA GETS GOOD DEMAND
The Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) tendered two $50 mln maturities today, attracting 36 bids wither $246 mln, of which 12 were successful. The April 2029 yield was 3.32% and the May 2035 yield was 4.55%.

DIVESTMENT PREP
Ex-Goldman Sachs deal-maker Andrew Barclay has been appointed as the incoming chairman at TVNZ. It seems an obvious assumption that his role will be to get the SOE into shape for a post-election sell-off. But that is just my speculation.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be softer again today for short durations but firmer for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Tuesday at 2.80%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from yesterday at 4.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.86%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.24%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Tuesday’s rate dow -2 bps to 4.19. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 4.15%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The local equity market is now up +0.4% in Wednesday trade. However, the ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.0%. Hong Kong is up +0.9% at its open with Shanghai up +0.5%. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session with the S&P500 up +0.4%..

OIL DIPS
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc to just on US$62.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now down at just over US$66/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
Prices remain range-bound on light volumes and low volatility, holding at $57/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up to US$3867/oz, up +US$21 from this time yesterday.

NZD STILL ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we little-changed at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now still under 65.1 and little-changed.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,481 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been low, just on +/- 0.9%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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