Like in the supporting categories, everything’s coming up Odyssey and central star Matt Damon is set to benefit the most from it in the acting race. Already an Oscar winner for his original screenplay Good Will Hunting, penned with best bud Ben Affleck nearly 30 years ago, Damon has had just two acting nominations since then and it might be his time.
A few men could stand in way, namely Andrew Scott in Elsinore, newly picked up by Focus Features, who will make a major play for the actor to earn his first nomination, and potentially a win. Portraying Chariots of Fire actor Ian Charelson in the final period of his life before he succumbed to AIDS in 1990, the story centers around his triumphant turn on stage as Hamlet, something Scott himself knows a bit about, playing the titular role in 2017 of Robert Icke’s production at the London’s Harold Pinter Theatre. Scott, lauded for his performance in 2023’s All of Us Strangers (which won him awards from the National Society of Film Critics and British Independent Film Awards), he’s well positioned for an Oscar breakthrough.
I’m also looking at Sebastian Stan in Cristian Mungiu’s Palme d’Or-winning Fjord, Pedro Pascal in the upcoming Tony Gilroy musician film Behemoth! and Spanish popstar Guitarricadelafuente in his film debut, the Cannes Best Director-winning La Bola Negra from Los Javis.
Tremendous movement overall this month with big moves up from those mentioned above, and drops for the likes of Tom Cruise in Digger and Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. A wise choice or a risky one? We’ll see in the coming months.
Best Actress also finds a new #1 in Julianne Moore for Jesse Eisenberg’s musical dramedy The Debut, set for a healthy festival run before its October bow. It’s been 12 years since Moore won the Best Actress Oscar for Still Alice and the venerable star has struggled to earn another nomination since, coming closest with 2023’s May December but not quite making it. Can she bounce back?
My top 10 is rich with European actresses, four spots currently, including Renate Reinsve (Fjord) and Sandra Hüller (Fatherland), recent nominees in this category. But close by are two that have never been on the Oscar radar but are now due to Cannes: Best Actress co-winner Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden, shared with her co-star Tao Okamoto, who I feel will get a supporting push) and Léa Seydoux in Gentle Monster, which was recently picked up from Netflix and will be getting a full push from the streamer. I’m feeling a bit low on recent winner Mikey Madison in her first film since winning her for Anora two years ago, and I may be sipping a bit of the Inde Navarette Kool-Aid… for now. But hearing rumbles that category placement is back on the table, which won’t help her in the long run. That needs to get locked down sooner than later.
Here are my 2027 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Actor and Best Actress for July.
BEST ACTOR
1. Matt Damon – The Odyssey (Universal Pictures) ⬆
2. Andrew Scott – Elsinore (Focus Features)⬆
3. Sebastian Stan – Fjord (NEON)
4. Pedro Pascal – Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures) ⬆
5. Guitarricadelafuente – La Bola Negra (Netflix) ⬆
6. Jaafar Jackson – Michael (Lionsgate) ⬇
7. Tom Cruise – Digger (Warner Bros) ⬇
8. John Turturro – The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (Sony Pictures Classics) ⬇
9. Ryan Gosling – Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) ⬇
10. John Malkovich – Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures) ⬇
Next up: Robert Aramayo – I Swear (Sony Pictures Classics) BAFTA Best Actor, *Valentin Campagne – Coward (MUBI) Cannes Best Actor, David Corenswet – Mr. Irrelevant: The John Tuggle Story (Paramount Pictures), *Adam Driver – Paper Tiger (NEON), *Jesse Eisenberg – The Debut (A24), Andrew Garfield – The Uprising (Focus Features), Anthony Ippolito – I Play Rocky (Amazon MGM Studios), Emmanuel Macchia – Coward (MUBI) Cannes Best Actor, Rami Malek – The Man I Love (TBD) ⬇, Brad Pitt – Untitled Cliff Booth Movie (Netflix), Dominic Sessa – Tony (A24) ⬇, Jeremy Allen White – The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia), Hanns Zischler – Fatherland (MUBI)
Lead or supporting? Valentin Campagne – Coward (MUBI) Cannes Best Actor, Adam Driver – Paper Tiger (NEON), Jesse Eisenberg – The Debut (A24)
2027? Javier Bardem – The Beloved (TBD), Adam Bessa – Parallel Tales (TBD), Bastien Bouillon – The Birthday Party (TBD), Nicholas Hoult – Cry to Heaven (TBD), Matthew Macfadyen – Seance of a Wet Afternoon (TBD), Luca Marinelli – The Echo Chamber (TBD), Scoot McNairy – The Life and Deaths of Wilson Shedd (TBD), Charles Melton – Saturn Return (Netflix), Josh O’Connor – Jack of Spades (TBD), Will Poulter – Saturn Return (Netflix), Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Cry to Heaven (TBD)
Full list (alphabetical)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – By Any Means (Paramount Pictures)
Robert Aramayo – I Swear (Sony Pictures Classics)
Javier Bardem – The Beloved (TBD)
Javier Bardem – Bunker (Sony Pictures Classics)
Adam Bessa – Parallel Tales (TBD)
Bastien Bouillon – The Birthday Party (TBD)
Valentin Campagne – Coward (MUBI) – Cannes Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet – Dune: Messiah (Warner Bros)
David Corenswet – Mr. Irrelevant: The John Tuggle Story (Paramount Pictures)
Tom Cruise – Digger (Warner Bros)
Matt Damon – The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)
Adam Driver – Paper Tiger (NEON)
Alden Ehrenreich – A Talent for Murder (Bleecker Street)
Jacob Elordi – The Dog Stars (20th Century Studios)
Andrew Garfield – The Uprising (Focus Features)
Ryan Gosling – Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios)
Guitarricadelafuente – La Bola Negra (Netflix)
Fred Hechinger – A Long Winter (TBD)
Nicholas Hoult – Cry to Heaven (TBD)
Anthony Ippolito – I Play Rocky (Amazon MGM Studios)
Hugh Jackman – The Death of Robin Hood (A24)
Jaafar Jackson – Michael (Lionsgate)
Tony Leung Chiu-wai – Silent Friend (1-2 Special)
Emmanuel Macchia – Coward (MUBI) – Cannes Best Actor
Matthew Macfadyen – Seance of a Wet Afternoon (TBD)
Rami Malek – The Man I Love (TBD)
John Malkovich – Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)
Luca Marinelli – The Echo Chamber (TBD)
Scoot McNairy – The Life and Deaths of Wilson Shedd (TBD)
Charles Melton – Saturn Return (Netflix)
Josh O’Connor – Disclosure Day (Universal Pictures)
Josh O’Connor – Jack of Spades (TBD)
Pedro Pascal – Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures)
Robert Pattinson – The Drama (A24)
Robert Pattinson – Primetime (A24)
Genden Phuntsok – Tenzing (Apple Original Films)
Brad Pitt – Untitled Cliff Booth Movie (Netflix)
Brad Pitt – Heart of a Beast (Paramount Pictures)
Will Poulter – Saturn Return (Netflix)
Sam Rockwell – Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)
Seth Rogen – The Invite (A24)
Leonardo Sbaraglia – Bitter Christmas (Sony Pictures Classics)
Andrew Scott – Elsinore (TBD)
Dominic Sessa – Tony (A24)
Sebastian Stan – Fjord (NEON)
Sul Kyung-gu – Possible Love (Netflix)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Cry to Heaven (TBD)
Miles Telller – Paper Tiger (NEON)
John Turturro – The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (Sony Pictures Classics)
Taika Waititi – Place to Be (TBD)
Denzel Washington – Here Comes the Flood (Netflix)
Jeremy Allen White – The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia)
Juris Žagars – Minotaur (MUBI)
Hanns Zischler – Fatherland (MUBI)
Zo In-sung – Possible Love (Netflix)
BEST ACTRESS
1. Julianne Moore – The Debut (A24) ⬆
2. Sandra Hüller – Fatherland (MUBI)
3. Renate Reinsve – Fjord (NEON) ⬇
4. Daisy Edgar-Jones – Sense and Sensibility (Focus Features) ⬇
5. Léa Seydoux – Gentle Monster (Netflix) ⬆
6. Virginie Efira – All of a Sudden (NEON)
Cannes Best Actress
7. Mikey Madison – The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia) ⬇
8. Ruth Madeley – Being Heumann (Apple Original Films) ⬆
9. *Inde Navarrette – Obsession (Focus Features) ⬆
10. Michelle Williams – A Place in Hell (NEON) ⬆
Next up: Marion Bailey – Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street) ⬆, Cho Yeo-jong – Possible Love (Netflix), *Penélope Cruz – Bunker (Sony Pictures Classics), Cynthia Erivo – Prima Facie (TBD), Sandra Hüller – Rose (MUBI) ⬇ Berlin Leading Performance, Jeon Do-yeon – Possible Love (Netflix), *Scarlett Johansson – Paper Tiger (NEON), *Tao Okamoto – All of a Sudden (NEON) Cannes Best Actress, Sophie Okonedo – Clarissa (NEON), Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century Studios), Zendaya – The Drama (A24)
Lead or Supporting? Penélope Cruz – Bunker (Sony Pictures Classics), Scarlett Johansson – Paper Tiger (NEON), *Inde Navarrette – Obsession (Focus Features), Tao Okamoto – All of a Sudden (NEON)
2027? Pamela Anderson – Love Is Not the Answer (TBD), Rachel Brosnahan – Saturn Return (Netflix), Ellen Burstyn – Place to Be (TBD), Jodie Comer – The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde (TBD), Patsy Ferran – Jack of Spades (TBD), Hafsia Herzi – The Birthday Party (TBD), Andrea Riseborough – Queen of Fashion (TBD), Amanda Seyfried – The Life and Deaths of Wilson Shedd (TBD), Rachel Weisz – Seance of a Wet Afternoon (TBD)
The full list:
Pamela Anderson – Love Is Not the Answer (TBD)
Marion Bailey – Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street)
Juliette Binoche – Queen at Sea (Greenwich Entertainment)
Emily Blunt – Disclosure Day (Universal Pictures)
Rachel Brosnahan – Saturn Return (Netflix)
Ellen Burstyn – Place to Be (TBD)
Cho Yeo-jong – Possible Love (Netflix)
Olivia Colman – Wicker (Black Bear)
Jodie Comer – The Death of Robin Hood (A24)
Jodie Comer – The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde (TBD)
*Penélope Cruz – Bunker (Sony Pictures Classics)
*Daisy Edgar-Jones – A Place in Hell (NEON)
Daisy Edgar-Jones – Sense and Sensibility (Focus Features)
Virginie Efira – All of a Sudden (NEON)
Cynthia Erivo – Prima Facie (TBD)
Hannah Einbinder – Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (MUBI)
Patsy Ferran – Jack of Spades (TBD)
Hafsia Herzi – The Birthday Party (TBD)
Anne Hathaway – The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century Studios)
Sandra Hüller – Fatherland (MUBI)
Sandra Hüller – Rose (MUBI)
Isabelle Huppert – Parallel Tales (TBD)
Jeon Do-yeon – Possible Love (Netflix)
Scarlett Johansson – Paper Tiger (NEON)
Rinko Kikuchi – Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! (Sony Pictures Classics)
Barbara Lennie – Bitter Christmas (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ruth Madeley – Being Heumann (Apple Original Films)
Mikey Madison – The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia)
Helen Mirren – A Talent for Murder (Bleecker Street)
Julianne Moore – The Debut(A24)
Sophie Okonedo – Clarissa (NEON)
Jenna Ortega – Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures/Columbia)
Natalie Portman – Photograph 51 (TBD)
Mason Reeves – Josephine (Summerian Films)
Renate Reinsve – Fjord (NEON)
Andrea Riseborough – Queen of Fashion (TBD)
Léa Seydoux – Gentle Monster (Netflix)
Léa Seydoux – The Unknown (NEON)
Amanda Seyfried – The Life and Deaths of Wilson Shedd (TBD)
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century Studios)
Rachel Weisz – Seance of a Wet Afternoon (TBD)
Olivia Wilde – The Invite (A24)
Michelle Williams – A Place in Hell (NEON)
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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