Consumer spending defies weak labour market
Despite a sluggish first quarter in 2025, Canadian consumer spending has remained “remarkably robust,” Hencic said, attributing the resilience to lower interest rates that have encouraged households to spend rather than save.
“Lower interest rates have tilted the math towards spending in households’ spend vs. save decisions, helping to cushion the economy from a slowing labour market and subdued housing market,” he said.
Spending surged 4.5% in Q2, even as the household savings rate fell by 2.2 percentage points since late 2024 .
Hencic noted that while debt service ratios have eased from their 2022 highs, the benefits of lower borrowing costs have not primarily flowed into housing. Shelter spending, including rent and imputed rent, has grown more slowly than in past cycles, with weak population growth cited as a contributing factor.
Risks and outlook for mortgage professionals
Looking ahead, Hencic cautioned that household spending growth is expected to run below trend, with income growth and the labour market weakening.