This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) could face a sharper iPhone margin squeeze than investors expected, with TrendForce estimating that the bill of materials for the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro could jump roughly 38% from the comparable model launched in 2025. The surge, driven largely by soaring memory prices, raises a difficult choice for Apple: absorb more of the increase through margins or risk slowing demand with higher handset prices.
TrendForce expects memory costs to keep rising into 2027, meaning the cost increase could widen further by the time the iPhone 18 series reaches consumers.
Apple may have enough financial flexibility to absorb part of the shock. The company reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16% year over year, while companywide gross margin reached 50.1%.
TrendForce believes Apple could follow the pricing strategy used with recent MacBook launches and sacrifice some hardware margin rather than pass the full cost increase to customers. That approach could help protect iPhone shipment volumes and market share, but it would put greater pressure on profitability if memory inflation persists.
The impact may also extend beyond Apple’s newest flagship models. TrendForce said Apple could reconsider pricing on previous-generation iPhones to help offset higher component costs across its lineup.
“The pressures will be particularly acute in the entry-level and mid-range segments, where already-thin margins leave little room to absorb higher costs. With memory prices having risen five- to sevenfold since the beginning of 2025, many brands may have no choice but to implement substantial price increases or discontinue product lines that have slipped into negative gross margins.”
Investor Takeaway On Apple Stock
For Apple investors, gross margin is now the key metric to watch.
The company enters the iPhone 18 cycle from a position of strength, with fiscal third-quarter revenue and profitability expanding sharply. But a near-40% increase in the cost of a flagship device could test Apple’s pricing power in a way investors have not seen recently.
The bullish case strengthens if Apple can raise prices modestly while maintaining upgrade demand. If memory prices continue climbing and Apple chooses to absorb most of the increase, hardware margins could come under pressure. Conversely, aggressive price hikes could protect margins but weaken unit volumes, making the iPhone 18 launch a particularly important test of Apple’s premium-pricing strategy.