“There will be horse trading between now and 9.30 tomorrow. There will be promises of jobs, loyalties will shift.”
However, she believed it would be “very hard” for Luxon to survive the bout of leadership turmoil.
“How do you survive two of these in less than four months?”
Du Plessis-Allan said she believed Luxon was “very close to losing the numbers, if he hasn’t already”.
“I have counted by myself three loyal Luxon MPs who have left him.”
She said two of those MPs had joined Erica Stanford’s camp and one had joined Chris Bishop’s.
Newstalk ZB host Heather du Plessis-Allan said it was too early to predict which way tomorrow’s extraordinary National Party caucus meeting would go. Photo / Michael Craig
“He has lost, by my count, those three MPs, and those are just the ones I know about. He has possibly lost more than that.”
Earlier, Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper said leadership challenges “never look good” for an incumbent, particularly after Luxon survived a confidence vote in April.
MPs told the Herald the April vote was 27-22 in Luxon’s favour.
Soper believed Luxon would resign if it became clear he had lost the confidence of his caucus.
“If they do have the numbers, then I would imagine knowing Chris Luxon as I do, he would probably do the honourable thing and resign,” Soper said.
“But if they don’t have the numbers, he’ll stare them down probably. But it never looks good for a leadership having to fight to the extent that he’s had to fight.”
Soper sympathised with Luxon’s predicament, describing the controversies that had dogged him as a series of “very minor gaffes”.
Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper. Photo / Dean Purcell
He believed the unrest within National’s caucus was coming from “naive politicians”, possibly encouraged by colleagues who saw themselves as potential leaders.
Meanwhile, senior National MPs Nicola Willis and Mark Mitchell have publicly backed Luxon ahead of tomorrow’s meeting.
Willis, the party’s deputy leader, told the Herald she had confidence in Luxon, while Mitchell said he had “100% confidence” in the Prime Minister.
“He has my absolute support and backing,” Mitchell said.
Bishop declined to comment on the meeting when approached by the Herald this afternoon.
Luxon also refused to answer questions about his leadership after landing at Wellington Airport, including whether he was considering resigning or retained the confidence of his caucus.
“I’ll talk to you tomorrow,” he told waiting journalists.
Newstalk ZB is owned by NZME, publisher of the Herald.