Well, shortly before 5pm today, we found out (mostly). A brief, terse statement from Luxon said Defence Minister Chris Penk “launched a leadership challenge this week, which resulted in today’s confidence vote”.
Luxon sacked Penk for his troubles. He’ll sit out the remainder of this term on the back bench.
That detail is important because it gives an indication of just how advanced the putsch was. Penk was clearly the stalking horse, or kamikaze candidate.
He was clearly not launching the challenge on behalf of himself, but to destabilise Luxon, clearing the path for a challenger, either Erica Stanford or Chris Bishop (Bishop, predictably, denied this was the case).
The Herald has been told he was working for Stanford’s camp. We were later told it was Bishop. Other media have reported both. Who knows, maybe Penk was a two-in-one kamikaze.
If Penk was working for Bishop, we have a rather hilarious situation in which one Chris was trying to roll another Chris on behalf of yet another Chris because they’re worried they’ll lose to yet another Chris.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon arrives to speak to the media after surviving a second National Party leadership vote at Parliament. Photo / Getty Images
Penk launched the bid, which had things gone to the plotters’ plan, would have resulted in Luxon losing a confidence vote. Coast cleared, Bishop or Stanford could have contested the leadership, unsullied with the guilt of having rolled their leader.
Penk would wield the knife, one of them would wear the crown.
But it failed. Luxon won. By how much, we’ll never know.
The late John Armstrong, political editor of the Herald, wrote on the morning in 2003 when Don Brash challenged Bill English that Brash presided over the “most ineptly executed coup since Guy Fawkes stumbled across a few barrels of gunpowder”.
Well, 23 years later, we’ve finally got a plot that snatches Brash’s crown.
Like poor old Mr Fawkes, Penk has been hung, drawn and quartered for his crimes.
Bishop and Stanford escape punishment, at least for now, but perhaps not forever. That too is a problem.
Don Brash and Bill English.
Both are key to National’s election pledges on education, transport and housing. How can National campaign on these policy areas in the next three months when Labour will be able to argue, with some validity, that Stanford and Bishop could be put to the sword at any moment after the election?
What will Luxon do after such obvious displays of disloyalty, like Stanford charging through the airport on Tuesday, not breathing a word of confidence in her leader, despite being asked multiple times?
What about Bishop? The name so often associated with these attempts.
How about senior whip Stuart Smith, the man whose job is to whip support for the leader and yet, at the airport on Tuesday night, wouldn’t say whether he himself had the confidence in Luxon that he’s in charge of ensuring?
What about the junior MPs Greg Fleming, Dana Kirkpatrick, Vanessa Weenik and Joseph Mooney, who wouldn’t pledge support for Luxon at various points this week – or junior minister James Meager who, instead of answering questions, discussed the rugby?
Luxon can’t punish everyone; the chatter won’t go away until Luxon’s performance lifts and there’s been no indication in the past few weeks that this is going to happen. The party may be locked in this death spiral forever.
How did it all unravel? Before the 6pm television news on Tuesday night, numbers appeared to be firming up for a change. While Luxon was getting crucial support from allies like Mark Mitchell, other key backers like Paul Goldsmith and Simeon Brown (who was ill) were silent.
However, by the time National’s considerable Auckland-based caucus boarded the last flights to the capital (booked last-minute, many sat at the back of the plane, a humbling experience for ministers used to travelling up front), momentum flipped back to Luxon.
Goldsmith gave Luxon his full-throated support arriving at Wellington Airport, as did Mitchell, who stopped to have a natter to reporters about how great Luxon is. As more and more MPs arrived, the statements of support grew stronger and stronger – the tide came in for Luxon.
When the Crown limousines pulled up at Premier House on Tuesday night could have been a time when Luxon’s backers told him to give in to the inevitable – to save some face and resign. Instead, they obviously had confidence Luxon could fight it out. That’s clearly what they told him and it’s manifestly what he did.
The other question will rock National’s election chances. Mitchell admitted at the airport a hit in the polls seems likely, as is the case after any instability; whether National can recover afterwards is still very uncertain.
One thing that Luxon has in his favour is that unlike in April, he didn’t spring this contest unawares. His opponents had a chance to organise and make their case. He clearly carries the confidence of a majority of his caucus – there’s no way to argue, as MPs did in April, that MPs were holding their tongues because they weren’t ready. They were ready and they still lost.
But the caucus has been destabilised. Feelings have been hurt and the one thing that could definitively stabilise support behind him – unambiguously strong polling – seems further out of reach than ever.