Here’s what we learned at Zandvoort.
Red Bull redemption
You can only imagine how difficult it is. To work your whole life, see your loved ones make sacrifice after sacrifice to get you to the top, and have it taken away before it can really begin.
And while that’s exactly what happened to Lawson at the start of last year, this weekend at Zandvoort has gone a long way to rewriting what defines his time in a Red Bull car.
This weekend wasn’t about proving Red Bull wrong for their part in promoting and demoting Lawson so quickly. It was about proving himself right in that he has what it takes to drive for one of the sport’s biggest outfits.
Even if it’s taken more than a year longer than he’d have liked it to, Lawson’s done just that.
As former teammate Isack Hadjar – promoted to Red Bull ahead of the Kiwi at the end of last year – was ruled out with a wrist injury suffered in the summer break, Lawson firmed as the only realistic option to take his place.
Liam Lawson at the Dutch Grand Prix. Photo / Red Bull
With just one practice session on Friday, thanks to the sprint format, Lawson wasn’t immediately on the money, but made use of every available lap to get himself in the picture to qualify inside the top 10.
For all the struggles of 2025, a 0.115s qualifying gap to Max Verstappen – arguably the best driver in the sport’s history – was all the proof that Lawson has completely left the worst part of his career behind.
From the moment the lights went out at Zandvoort, Lawson mostly stayed out of trouble – even as Verstappen wiped out at turn 14 on the first lap. Barring a late penalty for a yellow flag infringement (that cost Lawson nothing), the Kiwi’s efforts over the 72 laps were faultless.
And, with Red Bull battling to finish third in the constructors championship, there’s no telling exactly how valuable Lawson’s points will end up being.
Waiting on a wrist of fate
To make things even better, Lawson could find himself back in a Red Bull in a couple of weeks, when Formula One heads to Italy as we approach the end of the European leg.
At the time of writing, there has been no official prognosis on the extent of Hadjar’s injury, including how long he’ll need to completely heal.
While it’s not in dispute how the Frenchman picked up the injury, hurting his hand as part of a regular boxing session, there have been conflicting accounts of his recovery.
Hadjar’s own camp have insisted he’ll be fine for Monza, while Red Bull team boss Laurent Mekies wasn’t as certain.
Isack Hadjar is racing to be fit for the Italian Grand Prix. Photo / Red Bull
According to Sky Sports UK, Hadjar suffered a hairline fracture – a very small crack – in his wrist. Should that be the case, the recovery timeline of returning for the Italian Grand Prix would be optimistic at best.
Worst-case scenario, Hadjar could be out of action for up to eight weeks, depending on if he needs surgery.
While Hadjar’s injury isn’t as serious as the broken wrist that saw Daniel Ricciardo ruled out for five races in 2023, all deputised by Lawson, there is still a very real chance he might need to spend a bit more time on the sidelines.
For his part, Lawson has now proven he’s more than capable as a replacement, and will only improve with more time in the RB22, especially at a track like Monza.
Now we wait.
The finger on the trigger
Despite Lawson’s strong showing this year, even before the result at Zandvoort, there is still plenty of speculation as to where he’ll fit into Red Bull’s plans next year.
The form of Red Bull-backed Nikola Tsolov in Formula Two is proving difficult to ignore, especially if he can convert his championship lead into a title in his rookie season.
However, Red Bull and Racing Bulls have both made it clear they’re under no pressure to finalise their driver line-ups.
Over the summer break, when Lawson hinted the decision will be made, talk began to swirl that the Kiwi had lost his seat, with an announcement to come in September.
As they’ve done from the start, Racing Bulls confirmed to the Herald no decisions were made. Just who makes that decision, though, is starting to become a bit clearer.
After free practice on Friday, Racing Bulls chief executive Peter Bayer indicated that team principal Alan Permane will have the final say. However, sources have confirmed to the Herald that the call will be made from even higher up.
According to one source in particular, the decision will be made by Oliver Mintzlaff, the managing director of the entire Red Bull organisation.
Red Bull managing director Oliver Mintzlaff speaks with former team principal Christian Horner. Photo / Red Bull
With Red Bull needing to create value for its shareholders, the performances of its two Formula One teams are a solid source of income to achieve that.
Because Lawson is playing such a key role in Racing Bulls’ battle for fifth in the constructors championship, which earned more than $170 million in prizemoney last year, the financial rewards the Kiwi brings the organisation might just be too hard to walk away from, despite the raw promise of Tsolov.
As things stand, the likeliest outcome of Racing Bulls’ driver lineup will see Lawson and Arvid Lindblad stay put, with Tsolov to take over from Ayumu Iwasa as reserve driver.
Just how things pan out over the coming months could change plenty, though.
Verstappen’s shock announcement
It’s been an underlying narrative for the better part of the past two years; does Max Verstappen have a future in the sport?
As a four-time world champion, Verstappen had made plenty of noises about his dislike of the direction he feels Formula One is moving in.
But, with no apparent avenue to leave Red Bull for another contender, Verstappen last week unexpectedly announced a new contract extension, taking him to the end of 2030, if not beyond that.
That will almost certainly make him the driver with the most appearances for a single team, as he pushes towards the record seven championships won by Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton.
What does it mean for Lawson, then? In reality, very little.
Max Verstappen. Photo / Red Bull
It was never a one-or-the-other situation between the two, with the entire Red Bull development train still geared towards finding Verstappen’s ideal partner.
If Lawson does truly want to return to Red Bull, he’ll have to do it through displacing Hadjar – as was always the case.
Another door shuts
Elsewhere on the grid, one of Lawson’s potential landing spots is now closed, until 2028 at the earliest.
While Williams have struggled to continue the form that saw them finish fifth in the constructors championship last year, the English side have pulled off a bit of a coup in re-signing the pair of Alex Albon and, in particular, Carlos Sainz.
With plenty of speculation that he’d look to force an exit to join Audi next year, Sainz has re-signed on a multi-year contract, while Albon has extended for another season to the end of 2027.
Carlos Sainz has re-signed with Williams on a multi-year contract. Photo / AAP /Joel Carrett/ Photosport
There was no suggestion that Lawson was in talks with Williams over one of its two seats – even if team boss James Vowles attempted to sign the Kiwi on a short-term deal in 2024.
However, with 14 seats officially confirmed for next year, and a couple more that are guaranteed to not change, Lawson could have a fight to remain on the grid if he does choose to leave Red Bull.
Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.