But almost 2700 school leavers in 2025 had 30 credits at Level 2 or above yet still left school without NCEA Level 1.
This means the actual number of school leavers with no NCEA qualification in 2025 was 13,165, or 18.6% of all school leavers. This cohort hasn’t stabilised but, since 2020, is continuing to grow.
The official data shows the cohort growing 40% from 2020 to 2025. In actual numbers, the cohort grew 52% over the same period.
“These data reinforce the substantial issue that we face as a country and the need to address educational underachievement,” Dr Nina Hood, academic director at the Teachers Institute, told the Herald.
“It also raises an issue around how we utilise data.”
Stanford declined to comment on the cohort being larger than previously thought.
She has previously said the students in the long tail of underachievement are those who aren’t numerate or literate. They arrive at high school lacking what they needed in their primary and intermediate school years.
“Why are kids leaving school with no qualifications? Probably because they were told to look at the picture and guess the word when they were 5 years old, and they’ve never really been able to read ever since.”
Auckland University of Technology senior lecturer in teacher education Stuart Deerness said this oversimplified the issue.
“What’s actually driving the increase in the group of young people leaving school with no qualifications?
“Minister Stanford’s ‘look at the picture and guess the word’ line was already too simple an answer for the group we knew about. It doesn’t get more convincing just because the group turns out to be bigger.”
Grant Pollard, the Education Ministry’s data and insights general manager, said the ministry was looking into the impact on school leaver data of an increasing number of schools moving away from offering NCEA Level 1.
This may not have a large impact because those schools tend to have students facing fewer socio-economic barriers, who are more likely to continue to NCEA Level 2 and beyond.
Any impact could also be felt in the official as well as the actual numbers.
Research measures NCEA benchmarks, not their equivalents
The way the official school leaver data is recorded hasn’t changed since NCEA started to be introduced in 2002.
At the time, it was considered to be of value to recognise school leavers who fell short of NCEA benchmarks but had earned some credits at higher levels.
But it’s those benchmarks, rather than their equivalents as well, that are referenced in much of the research into the future prospects of school leavers, relative to their educational success.
Ministry of Education analysis of school leavers shows that about 70% who fall short of NCEA Level 1 end up not in employment, education or training (NEET) the following year, while it’s almost 50% for those without Level 2.
A 2018 ministry analysis found over 40% of those who fall short of NCEA Level 1 never find work or undertake further education or training.
“Employment rates never reach 50% for those that don’t [have any NCEA qualification]. Even leavers with NCEA 1 are 30% to 40% more likely to be in work,” the analysis said.
More recent analysis – in the 2023 Government report Preparing All Young People – said those below the Level 2 benchmark were four times more likely to spend half their years in limited employment (long periods unemployed, under-employed, or in low-wage or insecure work) between ages 16 and 24.
The growing cohort of school leavers with no NCEA qualifications contributed to the 14.4% NEET rate (for 15 to 24-year-olds) for the March quarter, the highest in a decade before falling to 13.8% for the June quarter.
For several years NCEA results were improving – but have been declining in general since 2020. Photo / 123RF, Herald montage
The June data showed 180,200 underutilised people in the 15-24 age group, an increase of 13.6% from a year earlier; the underutilisation rate measures spare capacity in the labour market (the unemployed, underemployed, available jobseekers and unavailable jobseekers).
Nor is the job market for last year’s school leavers about to get easier. Unemployment is at an 11-year high, and the Official Cash Rate is expected to keep rising this year.
A growing cohort of students leaving high school with no qualifications will also put more pressure on a future workforce, which is shrinking due to declining birth rates.
“We’re seeing the impacts of declining fertility on our primary education, where the numbers in the primary schools between 2024 and 2034 will drop by nearly 37,000 [or by 7%],” Professor Paul Spoonley told the Herald when the report he co-authored, People, Place and Prosperity, was released in April.
“The numbers in our secondary schools will drop by 20,000 [or 6%]. That then translates at a later point into fewer workers,” he said, adding this could be offset through immigration.
Education Minister Erica Standford recently announced expanding the Engage and Enrich programmes in Early Childhood Education to counter the number of 5-year-olds starting primary school with the speaking skills of a 2-year-old. Photo / Alyse Wright
‘It’s going to take time’
Stanford has also said that students who are more deprived should benefit the most from her reforms, which include an hour of reading, writing and maths every year to Year 8, as well as annual checks.
“Low-decile schools will have access to exactly the same high-quality curriculum as schools in high-decile areas. And their teachers are all getting the same high-quality professional learning and development in structured maths and structured literacy.
“It’s going to take time but that’s why these reforms matter. They’re creating consistency across the country and raising the standard in schools where, predominantly, these kids are at.”
Her education reforms, supported by some, have provoked concerns about worsening inequity from critics who believe they are too rigid and prescriptive.
The Government has also implemented a number of targeted initiatives aimed at struggling Year 6 to 10 students, including accelerated writing tools and maths tutoring for those more than a year behind.
The 2025 foundational assessment data showed 70% of socioeconomically deprived kids were already more than a year behind in maths by Year 3.
It was 80% for the same cohort in Year 3 for writing, and two-thirds for reading.
Stanford recently announced expanding the Engage and Enrich programmes in Early Childhood Education (ECE) centres that support oral language and self-regulation. This is to counter the number of 5-year-olds who are turning up to primary school with the speaking skills of a 2-year-old.
But she acknowledged to the Herald that this won’t help kids who are not in ECE, who likely need it the most.
In 2025, 36% of children aged 0-4 were in ECE, with participation rising with age; 83% of 4-year-olds attended ECE for 10 hours or more, with 43% attending for 20 hours or more.
Similarly, her primary and secondary school reforms won’t help kids who aren’t in school.
Attendance data is improving but, in the last term in 2025, only 36% of the most deprived students were regularly attending school (defined as 90% of the term).
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.