Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES 
The Cooperative Bank raised its 1 year fixed rate, and lowered its 18 month rate to a competitive 5.29% (although TSB has an even lower 5.19% for that fixed term). All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES 
None here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SQUEEZED BUDGETS 
The total volume of retail sales decreased by -$138 mln (-0.5%) in the June quarter compared with the March 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. That is their first fall since 2024. From a year ago the rise was +3.3% and a sharpish easing from the +4.5% year-on-year rise in the March quarter. With inflation running at +4.1% from a year ago, retail sales values still ‘look’ healthy at +6.6% from a year ago.

NZX50 SOFT 
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.3% today, and up +1.6% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +3.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +2.2% so far today and without that this market would have been sharply lower. They were joined by a surging SkyCity casino, Stride, Summerset, and Air NZ. But the losses were broader, led by Chorus, Synlait, Hallensteins and Ryman.

ITS NOT THE CRUDE PRICE, ITS THE REFINER MARGINS 
Z Energy’s owner Ampol has posted a very sharp earnings jump, with NPATx up to AU$1.36 bln in the six months to June, compared with a small loss in the same 2025 period. However they bemoaned Z Energy’s contribution, which declined on the same basis, because sales volumes fell -2.5% and “the New Zealand market was slower to pass through the rapidly increasing input costs for fuels”. Ampol’s share price is up +1.6% today so far, up +4.7% over the past month, and up +36% over the past year.

COMMODITY JUMPS 
Some key global food items are rising sharply again. Rice is up +4% today, up +8% over the past month, up +26% from a year ago. Wheat is up +1% today, up +5% for the month, up +36% from a year ago. Not everything though. Soybeans are unchanged today, up just +1% for the month, up +19% from a year ago.

NOT FEELING WELL? STAY HOME TO PREVENT COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION 
The country is experiencing a severe, late-surging influenza outbreak driven primarily by Influenza A. Hospitalisations for severe respiratory illness have hit ten-year highs in regions like Auckland, placing extreme pressure on emergency departments, GP care, and ambulance services nationwide. We are short-staffed here because of this. Major city road traffic is noticeably lower.

SWAP RATES SOFTISH 
Wholesale swap rates will likely be a little softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp to 3.00% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has fallen -3 bps to 5.00% from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.89% today and up +1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.75% and down -2 bps.. (The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with the Friday rate up +6 bps at 4.75%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.71%, and down -3 bps from this morning.

EQUITIES VERY MIXED 
The NZX50 is down -0.3% from Friday’s close. The ASX200 has opened up +0.6%. Tokyo has opened down -0.1%. The KOSPI has fallen -2.4% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -2.1% but Shanghai is only down -0.8% at its open. Singapore is unchanged in early Monday trade today. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500 will open up +0.2% but the Nasdaq may struggle to hold its Friday level.

OIL PRICES REVERSE 
American oil prices are down -US$1.50 from this morning with the WTI benchmark is now just over US$85.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$93/bbl and also down -US$1.50.

CARBON PRICE DIPS 
We see modest trading levels today but the price has dipped to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRM 
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$28/oz from this morning, now at US$4636/oz and its highest since mid-May. Silver is little-changed at US$69/oz.

NZD ON HOLD 
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning, still just on 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 63.2 and unchanged from this morning.

BITCOIN STAYS ELEVATED
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,518 and up another +0.5% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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