Steps to combat dementia now could free up thousands of aged care residential beds in the future, a new public health expert briefing says.

The briefing is a response to a report published last month – A place to grow old: Securing the future of aged care – that laid bare the pressure on the sector as the population ages.

The report called for an overhaul of the aged care system, warning there could be a shortage of more than 9000 residential beds in just over a decade – costing the government nearly $600 million more each year.

Briefing author and senior lecturer in the department of psychological medicine at Auckland University Etu Ma’u told RNZ the aged care report focused heavily on how to fund more beds and home-based support to meet expected future demand.

He said what’s driving that demand must also be a focus.

“My argument is that almost … half of residential care beds are occupied by people with dementia, and about a quarter of all the community services being provided to older people are being provided to people with dementia.”

He said this was despite the fact that people with dementia made up only about 10 percent of the population aged 65 and over.

Reducing dementia would reduce demand on the aged care sector, he said, therefore dementia prevention must go hand in hand with aged care reform.

Dr Etuini Ma'u.

Dr Etuini Ma’u.

Supplied/Pasifika Medical Association

Ma’u said new modelling showed lowering 14 key risk factors, including smoking, obesity, and social isolation by 15 percent resulted in 1000 fewer people with dementia in a decade.

Over three decades, that number jumped to 7000, he said, which was a significant saving for the aged care sector and the wider health system.

He said the country couldn’t afford to ignore such a key driver of aged care demand and called for strategies that made it easier for people to live healthier lives – particularly in more deprived areas.

“We know that things like vape shops, like alcohol outlets, like fast food outlets, the density, the number of those outlets in poorer areas is just that much higher than in affluent areas.”

M’au said while prevention measures could look modest, they accumulated over decades.

“That is why we need to take a long-term view of dementia prevention alongside long-term planning for aged care.”

Ma’u said the briefing also highlighted inequities in access to dementia care, with Māori and Pacific people three times less likely to use funded community support services, while the number of those with dementia was projected to triple between 2025 and 2050.

He said the cost of caring for Māori and Pacific people with dementia often fell to whānau and questions should be asked about the barriers to accessing care.

“Who are the people that aren’t even getting in the door to have the assessments that will then even make them eligible for home-based care?

“I think if we get it right for Māori and Pacific people, we’ll get it right for everybody.”